2026 Oklahoma State vs 2026 Oregon

Hypothetical

Oregon by 20.6

92% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Oklahoma StateIn-season results +7.9Preseason baseline −5.3

OregonPreseason baseline +26.5In-season results −5.9

Oregon home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Oklahoma State	2026 Oregon
Offensive / play	0.1753rd percentile	0.1753rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0262nd percentile	−0.0377th percentile
Points per game	38.283rd percentile5 games	41.091st percentile5 games
per game	21.464th percentile5 games	22.058th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Oklahoma State2026 Oregon

Momentum

Oklahoma State↗ rising (+45 pctl over 3 seasons)

Oregon→ steady (−7 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Oklahoma State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 58th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 85th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+27)

2026 Oregon

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 97th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 92nd percentile

Matching its talent (−5)

Campus distance

1470 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Oklahoma State OL vs 2026 Oregon DL	310.3 lbs	308.9 lbs
2026 Oregon OL vs 2026 Oklahoma State DL	313.2 lbs	280.3 lbs

2026 Oklahoma State line yards 3.19 · 2026 Oregon stuff rate 19.5%

2026 Oregon line yards 3.06 · 2026 Oklahoma State stuff rate 18.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Oregon leads 2–1 since 2000

Oklahoma State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Oklahoma State 39–31 Oregon	Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home
2025	Oklahoma State 3–69 Oregon	Autzen Stadium · Oregon home
2008bowl/playoff	Oklahoma State 31–42 Oregon	Neutral site

Coaching & program context

2026 Oklahoma State

Eric Morris (First season as Oklahoma State's head coach)

Sean Brophy

no career track record on file

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.6 plays a game, 96th percentile)

Skyler Cassity

career average +26.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Oregon

Dan Lanning

Drew Mehringer

career average +28.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 87th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)

Chris Hampton

career average +19.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.