2026 Ohio vs 2026 Sacramento State

Hypothetical

Ohio by 17.6

86% to win

Medium confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

OhioIn-season results −2.7Preseason baseline +1.2

Sacramento StateIn-season results −15.1Preseason baseline −1.6

Ohio home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 Sacramento State Experience · returning production 2026: not on file

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Ohio	2026 Sacramento State
Offensive / play	0.1550th percentile	−0.075th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1522nd percentile	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	27.542nd percentile6 games	16.36th percentile6 games
per game	24.744th percentile6 games	30.215th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Ohio2026 Sacramento State

Momentum

Ohio↘ falling (−26 pctl over 3 seasons)

Sacramento StateNot enough history entering 2026

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Ohio

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 23rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 27th percentile

Matching its talent (+4)

2026 Sacramento State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 6th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 2nd percentile

Matching its talent (−3)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for Sacramento State.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Ohio OL vs 2026 Sacramento State DL	296.8 lbs	285.6 lbs
2026 Sacramento State OL vs 2026 Ohio DL	309.6 lbs	258.8 lbs

2026 Ohio line yards 3.50 · 2026 Sacramento State stuff rate 16.5%

2026 Sacramento State line yards 2.58 · 2026 Ohio stuff rate 20.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · no meetings since 2000

These programs haven't met since 2000.

Coaching & program context

2026 Ohio

John Hauser

Scott Isphording

career average +24.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 36% of its run–pass plays, 8th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.8 plays a game, 30th percentile)

Kurt Mattix

career average +24.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Sacramento State

Alonzo Carter

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 91st percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 64th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.