Saturday, October 17

Ohio

4–2

Sacramento State

1–5

10:00 PM ET7:00 PM PTHornet StadiumSacramento, CA

Weather

Clear77°FW 3 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM PT · Updated 11:31 AM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Sacramento · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Clear77°FW 3 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

78%

Ohio win probability

Sacramento State 22%

Ohio by 12.6

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±16.6 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Ohio's case

Ohio's defense leads its matchup in

Ohio's defense is in the 44th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Sacramento State's offense is in the 6th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Sacramento State's answer

Sacramento State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Ohio's defense.

03 · What could swing it

Ohio has spread its pass attempts

Ohio's leading passer has thrown 40% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Ohio has the ball

Ohio offense: 50th
Sacramento State defense: 28th

Show the underlying numbers

Ohio offensive per play: 0.1550th percentile · #69 nationally
Sacramento State PPA allowed per play: 0.1328th percentile · #95 nationally
Ohio: 46%66th percentile · #47 nationally
Sacramento State success rate allowed: 37%71st percentile · #41 nationally
Ohio points per game: 27.542nd percentile · #79 nationally
Sacramento State points allowed per game: 30.215th percentile · #118 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Ohio offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.11
Rush success: 51.3%

Sacramento State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.43
Rush success allowed: 37.7%

When Sacramento State has the ball

Sacramento State offense: 5th
Ohio defense: 22nd

Show the underlying numbers

Sacramento State offensive PPA per play: −0.075th percentile · #131 nationally
Ohio PPA allowed per play: 0.1522nd percentile · #104 nationally
Sacramento State success rate: 41%32nd percentile · #94 nationally
Ohio success rate allowed: 42%35th percentile · #90 nationally
Sacramento State points per game: 16.36th percentile · #130 nationally
Ohio points allowed per game: 24.744th percentile · #78 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Sacramento State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.00
Rush success: 44.6%

Ohio defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 43.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Matt Vezza · 40% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 50%
Usage: charted in this direction: 23 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.5; over 23 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 78%; over 23 attempts with a result

46 of 49 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 43 short · 3 deep · 3 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 18.3 over 7 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Ohio offense in 2026

Matt Vezza

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

40/58 · 69% season

Passing yards: 438
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Kent State · Oct 3, 2026: 4/9, 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Victor Rosa

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 65
Rushing yards: 289
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Central Michigan · Oct 10, 2026: 9 carries, 70 yds, 0 TD

Riley Neer

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 27
Receiving yards: 396
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Central Michigan · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 59 yds, 1 TD

Ohio player tables

Who is producing

Ohio player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Ohio — Passing production
Player
Matt VezzaQB	5	40 / 58	438	7.6	4	3
Nick PoulosQB	3	27 / 54	338	6.3	4	0
Levi DavisQB	4	15 / 23	171	7.4	2	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Sacramento State player tables

Who is producing

Sacramento State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Sacramento State — Passing production
Player
Jackson SharmanQB	5	95 / 171	1,001	5.9	6	5
Carson ConklinQB	1	25 / 46	222	4.8	0	1
Brian SalazarQB	1	1 / 1	3	3.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Ohio's line averages 296.8 lbs against Sacramento State's 285.6 lbs front — an edge of 11.2 lbs a man.

Ohio's line average is based on 25 of 26 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Ohio OLOhio OL vs Sacramento State DL	296.8 lbs	285.6 lbs
Sacramento State OLSacramento State OL vs Ohio DL	309.6 lbs	258.8 lbs

Ohio
Sacramento State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Ohio

Points per game: 27.5#79 nationally · 42nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 24.7#78 nationally · 44th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 63% of 2025 PPA returns · 72nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 155 of 155 with a class year

Sacramento State

Points per game: 16.3#130 nationally · 6th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 30.2#118 nationally · 15th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: not published yet
Upperclassmen: 57% · 167 of 167 with a class year

Recruiting

Ohio

2026 signing class · #107 nationally: 23rd percentile · 175.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #111 nationally: 20th percentile · −0.71 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #129 nationally: 7th percentile · 522.8

Sacramento State

2026 signing class · #125 nationally: 9th percentile · 161.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #129 nationally: 7th percentile · −1.44 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #114 nationally: 18th percentile · 561.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Sacramento State Experience · returning production 2026: not published yet

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Ohio: solid line, circles · Sacramento State: dashed line, squares

Ohio

Offense · 2026: 21.6 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2 · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.4 pts · 23rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 63% returning · 72nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Sacramento State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 12.1 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 36.6 · 6th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 161.2 pts · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: not published yet; CFBD, 2026 roster

Ohio's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 48 recorded plays
vs Central Michigan
W 31–14
63%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 55 recorded plays
at Kent State
W 13–10
47%
Success rate
−0.10
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 63 recorded plays
vs Stonehill
vs FCS
W 35–7
54%
Success rate
0.38
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Ohio

Head coach: John Hauser
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Scott Isphording
career +24.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kurt Mattix
career +24.6 SP+ defense

Sacramento State

Head coach: Alonzo Carter
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Ohio: 6 games
Sacramento State: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Ohio's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Sacramento State has no clear answer on this matchup

Ohio has spread its pass attempts

When each team has the ball

When Ohio has the ball

Ohio offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Sacramento State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Sacramento State has the ball

Sacramento State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Ohio defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Matt Vezza

Victor Rosa

Riley Neer

Ohio player production

Sacramento State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Ohio

Sacramento State

Recruiting

Ohio

Sacramento State

Season percentile profiles

Ohio

Sacramento State

Ohio's recent games

vs Central Michigan

at Kent State

vs Stonehill

The coaching staff

Ohio

Sacramento State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Ohio's defense leads its matchup in