2026 Notre Dame vs 2026 Michigan State
Hypothetical
99% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Notre Dame Offense · SP+ 2026: 41.0, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan State Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Notre Dame Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.3, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Notre Dame Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Notre Dame Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 299.3 pts, 97th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Michigan State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 213.7 pts, 68th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Notre Dame Experience · returning production 2026: 51% returning, 61st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Michigan State Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 27th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Notre Dame | 2026 Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3798th percentile | 0.0215th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0993rd percentile | 0.1815th percentile |
| Points per game | 44.098th percentile6 games | 21.318th percentile6 games |
| per game | 11.098th percentile6 games | 25.735th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 94th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 99th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 70th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 45th percentile
Campus distance
115 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Notre Dame OL vs 2026 Michigan State DL | 308.1 lbs | 269.0 lbs |
| 2026 Michigan State OL vs 2026 Notre Dame DL | 305.1 lbs | 280.2 lbs |
2026 Notre Dame line yards 3.28 · 2026 Michigan State stuff rate 20.2%
2026 Michigan State line yards 2.98 · 2026 Notre Dame stuff rate 23.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Notre Dame leads 9–8 since 2000
Notre Dame has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Notre Dame 27–10 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2017 | Notre Dame 38–18 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2016 | Notre Dame 28–36 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2013 | Notre Dame 17–13 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2012 | Notre Dame 20–3 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2011 | Notre Dame 31–13 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2010 | Notre Dame 31–34 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2009 | Notre Dame 33–30 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2008 | Notre Dame 7–23 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2007 | Notre Dame 14–31 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2006 | Notre Dame 40–37 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2005 | Notre Dame 41–44 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2004 | Notre Dame 31–24 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2003 | Notre Dame 16–22 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2002 | Notre Dame 21–17 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2001 | Notre Dame 10–17 Michigan State | Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home |
| 2000 | Notre Dame 21–27 Michigan State | Michigan State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Marcus Freeman
OC
- Mike Denbrock
career average +34.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 26th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.0 plays a game, 66th percentile)
DC
- Aaron Henry (co-DC)
- Chris Ash
career average +20.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Pat Fitzgerald (First season as Michigan State's head coach)
OC
- Nick Sheridan
career average +31.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 29th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.3 plays a game, 44th percentile)
DC
- Joe Rossi
- Max Bullough (co-DC)
career average +23.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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