2026 Northwestern vs 2026 Colorado

Hypothetical

Northwestern by 12.2

80% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

NorthwesternIn-season results +8.2Preseason baseline +7.6

ColoradoPreseason baseline +1.3In-season results −0.3

Colorado home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Northwestern	2026 Colorado
Offensive / play	0.3395th percentile	−0.019th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	−0.0274th percentile
Points per game	35.474th percentile5 games	18.612th percentile5 games
per game	16.284th percentile5 games	25.439th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Northwestern2026 Colorado

Momentum

Northwestern↗ rising (+65 pctl over 3 seasons)

Colorado↘ falling (−33 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Northwestern

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 55th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 88th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+33)

2026 Colorado

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 61st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 38th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−23)

Campus distance

925 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Northwestern OL vs 2026 Colorado DL	305.4 lbs	270.0 lbs
2026 Colorado OL vs 2026 Northwestern DL	311.2 lbs	273.9 lbs

2026 Northwestern line yards 3.05 · 2026 Colorado stuff rate 31.2%

2026 Colorado line yards 2.96 · 2026 Northwestern stuff rate 18.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Northwestern leads 1–0 since 2000

Northwestern has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Northwestern 41–7 Colorado	Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Northwestern home

Coaching & program context

2026 Northwestern

David Braun

Chip Kelly

career average +39.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)

Tim McGarigle

career average +22.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Colorado

Deion Sanders

Brennan Marion

career average +32.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Go-Go (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 69th percentile of 2026 FBS; 75.0 plays a game, 93rd percentile)

Chris Marve

career average +22.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.