Saturday, October 17

Colorado

2–3

Utah

5–0 · AP #11

10:15 PM ET8:15 PM MTFolsom FieldBoulder, CO

Weather

Clear58°FW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 8:15 PM MT · Updated 12 hours ago · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Boulder · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear58°FW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Colorado win probability

Utah 92%

Utah by 20.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.7 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Colorado's case

No clear statistical strength for Colorado yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the Colorado unit ranks well below the Utah unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Utah's answer

Utah's defense leads its matchup in

Utah's defense is in the 96th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Colorado's offense is in the 12th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Colorado a 8% chance to win and predicts Utah by 20.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.7 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Colorado has the ball

Colorado offense: 9th
Utah defense: 85th

Show the underlying numbers

Colorado offensive per play: −0.019th percentile · #124 nationally
Utah PPA allowed per play: −0.0685th percentile · #16 nationally
Colorado: 40%23rd percentile · #107 nationally
Utah success rate allowed: 33%95th percentile · #8 nationally
Colorado points per game: 18.612th percentile · #122 nationally
Utah points allowed per game: 13.096th percentile · #7 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Colorado offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 38.5%

Utah defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 33.0%

When Utah has the ball

Utah offense: 93rd
Colorado defense: 74th

Show the underlying numbers

Utah offensive PPA per play: 0.3293rd percentile · #9 nationally
Colorado PPA allowed per play: −0.0274th percentile · #33 nationally
Utah success rate: 51%94th percentile · #9 nationally
Colorado success rate allowed: 37%72nd percentile · #39 nationally
Utah points per game: 42.896th percentile · #6 nationally
Colorado points allowed per game: 25.439th percentile · #84 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Utah offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 49.7%

Colorado defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.09
Rush success allowed: 41.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Julian Lewis · 71% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 39 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.9; over 39 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 39 attempts with a result

92 of 94 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 82 short · 10 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (42%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 13.1 over 24 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Colorado offense in 2026

Julian Lewis

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

61/95 · 64% season

Passing yards: 733
Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 2

Last game

Baylor · Sep 26, 2026: 11/16, 75 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Micah Welch

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 42
Rushing yards: 218
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Texas Tech · Oct 3, 2026: 2 carries, 5 yds, 0 TD

Joseph Williams

WR · 5 games

Receptions: 32
Receiving yards: 454
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Texas Tech · Oct 3, 2026: 10 rec, 93 yds, 1 TD

Colorado player tables

Who is producing

Colorado player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Colorado — Passing production
Player
Julian LewisQB	4	61 / 95	733	7.7	6	2
Isaac WilsonQB	3	40 / 71	443	6.2	2	3
Kaneal SweetwyneQB	2	8 / 12	42	3.5	0	0
Joseph WilliamsWR	2	2 / 3	49	16.3	0	1

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Utah player tables

Who is producing

Utah player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Utah — Passing production
Player
Devon DampierQB	5	94 / 131	1,134	8.7	12	2
Byrd FicklinQB	4	10 / 18	186	10.3	2	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Colorado's line averages 311.2 lbs against Utah's 270.4 lbs front — an edge of 40.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Colorado OLColorado OL vs Utah DL	311.2 lbs	270.4 lbs
Utah OLUtah OL vs Colorado DL	308.6 lbs	270.0 lbs

Colorado
Utah

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Colorado

Points per game: 18.6#122 nationally · 12th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 25.4#84 nationally · 39th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 14% of 2025 PPA returns · 16th percentile
Upperclassmen: 70% · 106 of 106 with a class year

Utah

Points per game: 42.8#6 nationally · 96th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 13.0#7 nationally · 96th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 68% of 2025 PPA returns · 80th percentile
Upperclassmen: 41% · 114 of 114 with a class year

Recruiting

Colorado

2026 signing class · #67 nationally: 52nd percentile · 193.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #59 nationally: 58th percentile · 0.09 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #39 nationally: 72nd percentile · 731.6

Utah

2026 signing class · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 226.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #37 nationally: 74th percentile · 0.50 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #58 nationally: 58th percentile · 695.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Colorado: solid line, circles · Utah: dashed line, squares

Colorado

Offense · 2026: 21.4 · 26th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.3 · 65th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 193.4 pts · 52nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Utah

Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.1 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.7 · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.9 pts · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Colorado's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 81 recorded plays
vs Texas Tech
L 7–29
40%
Success rate
−0.26
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 82 recorded plays
at Baylor
L 13–23
35%
Success rate
−0.15
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 51 recorded plays
at Northwestern
L 7–41
43%
Success rate
−0.09
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Colorado

Head coach: Deion Sanders
career −1.7 SP+ overall
Photo: U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Lydia Gordon, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Brennan Marion
career +32.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Chris Marve
career +22.8 SP+ defense

Utah

Head coach: Morgan Scalley
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Kevin McGiven
career +26.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Colton Swan
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

Utah leads 12–3 since 2000

2025 · Utah 53, Colorado 7
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2024 · Colorado 49, Utah 24
Folsom Field
2023 · Utah 23, Colorado 17
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2022 · Utah 63, Colorado 21
Folsom Field
2021 · Utah 28, Colorado 13
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2020 · Utah 38, Colorado 21
Folsom Field
2019 · Utah 45, Colorado 15
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2018 · Utah 30, Colorado 7
Folsom Field
2017 · Utah 34, Colorado 13
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2016 · Colorado 27, Utah 22
Folsom Field
2015 · Utah 20, Colorado 14
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2014 · Utah 38, Colorado 34
Folsom Field
2013 · Utah 24, Colorado 17
Rice-Eccles Stadium
2012 · Utah 42, Colorado 35
Folsom Field
2011 · Colorado 17, Utah 14
Rice-Eccles Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Colorado: 5 games
Utah: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Colorado yet

Utah's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Colorado has the ball

Colorado offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Utah defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Utah has the ball

Utah offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Colorado defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Julian Lewis

Micah Welch

Joseph Williams

Colorado player production

Utah player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Colorado

Utah

Recruiting

Colorado

Utah

Season percentile profiles

Colorado

Utah

Colorado's recent games

vs Texas Tech

at Baylor

at Northwestern

The coaching staff

Colorado

Utah

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Utah's defense leads its matchup in