2026 North Texas vs 2026 Navy

Hypothetical

North Texas by 12.7

81% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

North TexasPreseason baseline +3.0In-season results +2.3

NavyPreseason baseline −4.3In-season results −0.6

North Texas home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 North Texas	2026 Navy
Offensive / play	0.3088th percentile	0.2064th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0842nd percentile	0.0936th percentile
Points per game	42.295th percentile6 games	27.039th percentile5 games
per game	29.217th percentile6 games	23.450th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 North Texas2026 Navy

Momentum

North Texas↗ rising (+11 pctl over 3 seasons)

Navy→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 North Texas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 24th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 45th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+22)

2026 Navy

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 2nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 49th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+46)

Campus distance

1215 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 North Texas OL vs 2026 Navy DL	308.3 lbs	267.0 lbs
2026 Navy OL vs 2026 North Texas DL	287.8 lbs	272.3 lbs

2026 North Texas line yards 3.12 · 2026 Navy stuff rate 19.1%

2026 Navy line yards 3.74 · 2026 North Texas stuff rate 18.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Navy leads 2–1 since 2000

North Texas has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	North Texas 31–17 Navy	DATCU Stadium · North Texas home
2023	North Texas 24–27 Navy	Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Navy home
2007	North Texas 62–74 Navy	North Texas home

Coaching & program context

2026 North Texas

Neal Brown (First season as North Texas's head coach)

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 78th percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.7 plays a game, 92nd percentile)

Bradley Dale Peveto (co-DC)
Matt Powledge

career average +30.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Navy

Brian Newberry

Drew Cronic

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Wing-T (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 20% of its run–pass plays, 1st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.4 plays a game, 37th percentile)

Eric Lewis
Ricky Brown (co-DC)

career average +35.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.