Saturday, October 24
Compare these teams
4–2
at
Navy
2–3
3:30 PM ETNavy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumAnnapolis, MD
Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · North Texas's case
North Texas's offense is in the 88th percentile for per play this season. Navy's defense is in the 36th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Navy's answer
Navy's offense is in the 79th percentile for success rate this season. North Texas's defense is in the 44th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Tayven Jackson · 90% of charted pass attempts
194 of 198 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 6 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 6 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 168 short · 26 deep · 4 not stated
The North Texas offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
144/199 · 72% season
Last game
Charlotte · Oct 10, 2026: 24/31, 349 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Charlotte · Oct 10, 2026: 12 carries, 105 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Charlotte · Oct 10, 2026: 9 rec, 122 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayven JacksonQB | 6 | 144 / 199 | 1,859 | 9.3 | 15 | 4 |
| Chaston DittaQB | 4 | 14 / 19 | 159 | 8.4 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Jimerson Jr.QB | 2 | 2 / 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson GutierrezQB | 4 | 22 / 47 | 439 | 9.3 | 4 | 1 |
| Braxton WoodsonQB | 3 | 7 / 20 | 71 | 3.6 | 0 | 1 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
North Texas's line averages 308.3 lbs against Navy's 267.0 lbs front — an edge of 41.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas OLNorth Texas OL vs Navy DL | 308.3 lbs | 267.0 lbs |
| Navy OLNavy OL vs North Texas DL | 287.8 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
North Texas: solid line, circles · Navy: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 39 recorded plays
W 50–10
51%
Success rate
0.72
PPA / play
Oct 1 · 86 recorded plays
W 45–44
40%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 46 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 63–14
72%
Success rate
0.86
PPA / play
Neal Brown
First season as North Texas's head coach · career +1.4 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Bradley Dale Peveto
Co-defensive coordinator · career +30.5 SP+ defense
Matt Powledge
career +30.5 SP+ defense
Drew Cronic
career +31.6 SP+ offense
Eric Lewis
career +35.2 SP+ defense
2025 · North Texas 31, Navy 17
DATCU Stadium
2023 · Navy 27, North Texas 24
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
2007 · Navy 74, North Texas 62
Evidence window: 2026 season to date