2026 North Carolina vs 2026 Pittsburgh
Hypothetical
53% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 North Carolina Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.7, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 North Carolina Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.4, 82nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 North Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 North Carolina Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 247.7 pts, 87th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 214.1 pts, 69th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 North Carolina Experience · returning production 2026: 28% returning, 34th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 51st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 North Carolina | 2026 Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0932nd percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0166th percentile | −0.0685th percentile |
| Points per game | 23.428th percentile5 games | 34.872nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 19.074th percentile5 games | 14.790th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 79th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 60th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 66th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
Campus distance
320 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 North Carolina OL vs 2026 Pittsburgh DL | 316.3 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
| 2026 Pittsburgh OL vs 2026 North Carolina DL | 310.3 lbs | 277.9 lbs |
2026 North Carolina line yards 3.17 · 2026 Pittsburgh stuff rate 30.5%
2026 Pittsburgh line yards 3.16 · 2026 North Carolina stuff rate 9.3%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · North Carolina leads 10–4 since 2000
North Carolina has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | North Carolina 21–17 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2024 | North Carolina 24–34 Pittsburgh | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2023 | North Carolina 41–24 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2022 | North Carolina 42–24 Pittsburgh | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2021 | North Carolina 23–30 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2019 | North Carolina 27–34 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2018 | North Carolina 38–35 Pittsburgh | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2017 | North Carolina 34–31 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2016 | North Carolina 37–36 Pittsburgh | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2015 | North Carolina 26–19 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2014 | North Carolina 40–35 Pittsburgh | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2013 | North Carolina 34–27 Pittsburgh | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2009bowl/playoff | North Carolina 17–19 Pittsburgh | Neutral site |
| 2000 | North Carolina 20–17 Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Bill Belichick
OC
- Bobby Petrino
career average +33.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 72nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 57.2 plays a game, 2nd percentile)
DC
- Stephen Belichick
- Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 2 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
- Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 7 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
career average +23.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Pat Narduzzi
OC
- Kade Bell
career average +30.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Hurry-up, no-huddle spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 82nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.3 plays a game, 89th percentile)
DC
- Cory Sanders
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
We could not check the schedule for a game between these teams.
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