2026 Nevada vs 2026 Western Kentucky
Hypothetical
59% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Nevada Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.4, 26th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.3, 23rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Nevada Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.1, 49th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.6, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Nevada Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Nevada Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 177.1 pts, 29th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 185.2 pts, 42nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Nevada Experience · returning production 2026: 36% returning, 44th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Experience · returning production 2026: 84% returning, 93rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Nevada | 2026 Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1035th percentile | 0.0318th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1232nd percentile | 0.1914th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.844th percentile5 games | 22.221st percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.058th percentile5 games | 35.24th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 23rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 36th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 23rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 15th percentile
Campus distance
1810 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Nevada OL vs 2026 Western Kentucky DL | 298.8 lbs | 276.4 lbs |
| 2026 Western Kentucky OL vs 2026 Nevada DL | 311.2 lbs | 266.5 lbs |
2026 Nevada line yards 3.09 · 2026 Western Kentucky stuff rate 15.6%
2026 Western Kentucky line yards 2.77 · 2026 Nevada stuff rate 15.0%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000
Nevada has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Nevada 49–14 Western Kentucky | Mackay Stadium · Nevada home |
| 2025 | Nevada 16–31 Western Kentucky | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Western Kentucky home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jeff Choate
OC
- Brett Bartolone
- David Gilbertson
career average +14.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.0 plays a game, 39th percentile)
DC
- Kane Ioane
career average +26.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
Listed as Air raid on the 2026 page. Threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS.
HC
- Tyson Helton
OC
- Bodie Reeder
- Joe Bernardi (co-OC)
career average +19.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 80th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC
- Davis Merritt
career average +28.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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