Saturday, October 17

Nevada

2–3

North Dakota State

5–1

7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTFargodomeFargo, ND

Weather

Played indoors at Fargodome.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

26%

Nevada win probability

North Dakota State 74%

North Dakota State by 10.6

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±16.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Nevada's case

Nevada's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Nevada's defense is in the 57th percentile for success rate allowed this season. North Dakota State's offense is in the 34th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · North Dakota State's answer

North Dakota State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

North Dakota State's defense is in the 98th percentile for allowed per play this season. Nevada's offense is in the 35th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

Nevada leans on its top passer

Nevada's leading passer has thrown 55% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Nevada has the ball

Nevada offense: 35th
North Dakota State defense: 98th

Show the underlying numbers

Nevada offensive PPA per play: 0.1035th percentile · #87 nationally
North Dakota State PPA allowed per play: −0.1598th percentile · #4 nationally
Nevada success rate: 42%37th percentile · #87 nationally
North Dakota State success rate allowed: 38%66th percentile · #47 nationally
Nevada points per game: 27.844th percentile · #78 nationally
North Dakota State per game: 10.399th percentile · #2 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Nevada offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 49.2%

North Dakota State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 0.97
Rush success allowed: 39.1%

When North Dakota State has the ball

North Dakota State offense: 39th
Nevada defense: 32nd

Show the underlying numbers

North Dakota State offensive PPA per play: 0.1239th percentile · #80 nationally
Nevada PPA allowed per play: 0.1232nd percentile · #93 nationally
North Dakota State success rate: 42%34th percentile · #91 nationally
Nevada success rate allowed: 39%57th percentile · #60 nationally
North Dakota State points per game: 29.250th percentile · #70 nationally
Nevada points allowed per game: 22.058th percentile · #57 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

North Dakota State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.30
Rush success: 40.8%

Nevada defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 40.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Carter Jones · 55% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 53%
Usage: charted in this direction: 36 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.5; over 35 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 60%; over 35 attempts with a result

68 of 70 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 57 short · 11 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (53%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 9.5 over 35 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Nevada offense in 2026

Carter Jones

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

53/89 · 60% season

Passing yards: 654
Touchdowns: 3
Interceptions: 2

Last game

UTEP · Oct 10, 2026: 11/19, 82 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Dominic Kelley

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 76
Rushing yards: 440
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

UTEP · Oct 10, 2026: 22 carries, 99 yds, 1 TD

Damien Moun

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 24
Receiving yards: 145
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

UTEP · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 19 yds, 0 TD

Nevada player tables

Who is producing

Nevada player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Nevada — Passing production
Player
Carter JonesQB	4	53 / 89	654	7.3	3	2
AJ BiancoQB	3	14 / 24	136	5.7	1	1
Luke DuncanQB	1	7 / 16	51	3.2	0	2
Marshaun BrownWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

North Dakota State player tables

Who is producing

North Dakota State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

North Dakota State — Passing production
Player
Nathan HayesQB	6	87 / 138	1,119	8.1	8	5
Trey DrakeQB	1	3 / 4	35	8.8	0	0
Preston BrownQB	2	1 / 2	4	2.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Nevada's line averages 298.8 lbs against North Dakota State's 268.0 lbs front — an edge of 30.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Nevada OLNevada OL vs North Dakota State DL	298.8 lbs	268.0 lbs
North Dakota State OLNorth Dakota State OL vs Nevada DL	300.1 lbs	266.5 lbs

Nevada
North Dakota State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Nevada

Points per game: 27.8#78 nationally · 44th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 22.0#57 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 36% of 2025 PPA returns · 44th percentile
Upperclassmen: 41% · 107 of 107 with a class year

North Dakota State

Points per game: 29.2#70 nationally · 50th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 10.3#2 nationally · 99th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: not published yet
Upperclassmen: 35% · 132 of 132 with a class year

Recruiting

Nevada

2026 signing class · #98 nationally: 29th percentile · 177.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #110 nationally: 20th percentile · −0.65 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #118 nationally: 15th percentile · 550.0

North Dakota State

2026 signing class · #117 nationally: 15th percentile · 166.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #132 nationally: 4th percentile · −1.62 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #131 nationally: 5th percentile · 515.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

North Dakota State Experience · returning production 2026: not published yet

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Nevada: solid line, circles · North Dakota State: dashed line, squares

Nevada

Offense · 2026: 21.4 · 26th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.1 · 49th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 177.1 pts · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 36% returning · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

North Dakota State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.1 · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.7 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 166.6 pts · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: not published yet; CFBD, 2026 roster

Nevada's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 74 recorded plays
at UTEP
W 30–13
45%
Success rate
0.13
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 67 recorded plays
vs Air Force
L 33–36
40%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 58 recorded plays
at Middle Tennessee
L 20–27
36%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Nevada

Head coach: Jeff Choate
career −14.3 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Brett Bartolone
career +14.2 SP+ offense; David Gilbertson
career +14.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kane Ioane
career +26.1 SP+ defense

North Dakota State

Head coach: Tim Polasek
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Nevada: 5 games
North Dakota State: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Nevada's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

North Dakota State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Nevada leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Nevada has the ball

Nevada offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

North Dakota State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When North Dakota State has the ball

North Dakota State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Nevada defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Carter Jones

Dominic Kelley

Damien Moun

Nevada player production

North Dakota State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Nevada

North Dakota State

Recruiting

Nevada

North Dakota State

Season percentile profiles

Nevada

North Dakota State

Nevada's recent games

at UTEP

vs Air Force

at Middle Tennessee

The coaching staff

Nevada

North Dakota State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Nevada's defense leads its matchup in allowed