2026 NC State vs 2026 App State

Hypothetical

NC State by 8.2

72% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

NC StatePreseason baseline +9.8In-season results −6.7

App StatePreseason baseline −6.2In-season results −1.5

App State home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 NC State	2026 App State
Offensive / play	0.1962nd percentile	0.1239th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1620th percentile	0.0262nd percentile
Points per game	33.064th percentile6 games	28.447th percentile5 games
per game	27.724th percentile6 games	19.871st percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 NC State2026 App State

Momentum

NC State↘ falling (−16 pctl over 3 seasons)

App State→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 NC State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 72nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 42nd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−30)

2026 App State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 36th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 30th percentile

Matching its talent (−6)

Campus distance

170 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 NC State OL vs 2026 App State DL	308.3 lbs	269.6 lbs
2026 App State OL vs 2026 NC State DL	302.3 lbs	273.8 lbs

2026 NC State line yards 3.03 · 2026 App State stuff rate 23.1%

2026 App State line yards 2.68 · 2026 NC State stuff rate 23.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · NC State leads 2–0 since 2000

NC State has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	NC State 41–31 App State	Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home
2006	NC State 23–10 App State	Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home

Coaching & program context

2026 NC State

Dave Doeren

Kurt Roper

career average +26.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 61st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)

Charlton Warren (co-DC)
D. J. Eliot

career average +31.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 App State

Dowell Loggains

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 81st percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.