2026 Missouri vs 2026 Texas A&M
Hypothetical
53% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Missouri Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.0, 77th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.4, 76th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.1 pts, 76th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Texas A&M Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 283.1 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Missouri Experience · returning production 2026: 42% returning, 55th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Texas A&M Experience · returning production 2026: 73% returning, 87th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Missouri | 2026 Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.0420th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0274th percentile | 0.0070th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.877th percentile6 games | 27.542nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 17.780th percentile6 games | 20.069th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 91st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 66th percentile
Campus distance
620 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Missouri OL vs 2026 Texas A&M DL | 309.3 lbs | 275.7 lbs |
| 2026 Texas A&M OL vs 2026 Missouri DL | 318.7 lbs | 274.6 lbs |
2026 Missouri line yards 2.92 · 2026 Texas A&M stuff rate 18.6%
2026 Texas A&M line yards 3.10 · 2026 Missouri stuff rate 24.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Missouri leads 8–5 since 2000
Missouri has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Missouri 27–6 Texas A&M | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2025 | Missouri 17–38 Texas A&M | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2024 | Missouri 10–41 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2021 | Missouri 14–35 Texas A&M | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2014 | Missouri 34–27 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2013 | Missouri 28–21 Texas A&M | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2012 | Missouri 29–59 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2011 | Missouri 38–31 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2010 | Missouri 30–9 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2007 | Missouri 40–26 Texas A&M | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2006 | Missouri 19–25 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2003 | Missouri 45–22 Texas A&M | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2002 | Missouri 33–27 Texas A&M | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Eli Drinkwitz
OC
- Chip Lindsey
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.5 plays a game, 73rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Batoon
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Mike Elko
OC
- Holmon Wiggins
career average +36.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)
DC
- Elijah Robinson (co-DC)
- Lyle Hemphill
career average +26.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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