2026 Missouri vs 2026 Florida
Hypothetical
62% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Missouri Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.0, 77th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 87th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.6, 58th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.1 pts, 76th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.0 pts, 88th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Missouri Experience · returning production 2026: 42% returning, 55th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Florida Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 84th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Missouri | 2026 Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.2883rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0274th percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.877th percentile6 games | 41.792nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 17.780th percentile6 games | 29.018th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 91st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
Campus distance
855 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Missouri OL vs 2026 Florida DL | 309.3 lbs | 293.9 lbs |
| 2026 Florida OL vs 2026 Missouri DL | 311.7 lbs | 274.6 lbs |
2026 Missouri line yards 2.92 · 2026 Florida stuff rate 14.5%
2026 Florida line yards 2.93 · 2026 Missouri stuff rate 24.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Missouri leads 7–6 since 2000
Missouri has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Missouri 45–17 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2023 | Missouri 33–31 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2022 | Missouri 17–24 Florida | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2021 | Missouri 24–23 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2020 | Missouri 17–41 Florida | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2019 | Missouri 6–23 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2018 | Missouri 38–17 Florida | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2017 | Missouri 45–16 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2016 | Missouri 14–40 Florida | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2015 | Missouri 3–21 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2014 | Missouri 42–13 Florida | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2013 | Missouri 36–17 Florida | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2012 | Missouri 7–14 Florida | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Eli Drinkwitz
OC
- Chip Lindsey
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.5 plays a game, 73rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Batoon
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jon Sumrall (First season as Florida's head coach)
OC
- Buster Faulkner
career average +28.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 31st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.2 plays a game, 77th percentile)
DC
- Brad White
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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