2026 Missouri State vs 2026 Kennesaw State

Published

Kennesaw State by 0.8

52% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

Missouri StatePreseason baseline −7.3In-season results −5.2

Kennesaw StatePreseason baseline −7.7In-season results −1.5

Missouri State home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Missouri State	2026 Kennesaw State
Offensive / play	0.0727th percentile	0.1035th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.254th percentile	0.1426th percentile
Points per game	21.820th percentile5 games	22.623rd percentile5 games
per game	32.412th percentile5 games	23.450th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Missouri State2026 Kennesaw State

Momentum

Missouri State↘ falling (−15 pctl over 3 seasons)

Kennesaw State↗ rising (+21 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Missouri State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2025–2026: 4th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 6th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

2026 Kennesaw State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 4th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 23rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+18)

Campus distance

535 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Missouri State OL vs 2026 Kennesaw State DL	303.7 lbs	276.2 lbs
2026 Kennesaw State OL vs 2026 Missouri State DL	305.8 lbs	261.2 lbs

2026 Missouri State line yards 2.92 · 2026 Kennesaw State stuff rate 20.0%

2026 Kennesaw State line yards 3.28 · 2026 Missouri State stuff rate 15.3%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Kennesaw State leads 1–0 since 2000

Kennesaw State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Missouri State 34–41 Kennesaw State	Fifth Third Stadium · Kennesaw State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Missouri State

Casey Woods

Mark Cala
Nick Petrino

career average +22.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 49th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.0 plays a game, 20th percentile)

Jack Curtis
L. D. Scott

career average +29.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Kennesaw State

Jerry Mack

Mitch Militello

career average +26.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.4 plays a game, 50th percentile)

Marc Mattioli

career average +30.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.