Wednesday, October 14
Compare these teams
1–4
vs
Kennesaw State
1–4
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTPlaster Sports ComplexSpringfield, MO
Chance of thunderstorms78°FNW 2 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 99%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:56 PM CT · National Weather Service
Springfield · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Chance of thunderstorms78°FNW 2 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 99%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
48%
Missouri State win probability
Kennesaw State 52%
Kennesaw State by 0.8
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Kennesaw State's case
Kennesaw State's offense is in the 61st percentile for success rate this season. Missouri State's defense is in the 3rd percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers02 · Missouri State's answer
None of its defense's numbers stands out against Kennesaw State's offense.
03 · What could swing it
The National Weather Service gives a 99% chance of precipitation at kickoff.
See the weatherOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Skyler Locklear · 80% of charted pass attempts
83 of 84 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 68 short · 15 deep · 1 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (58%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 18.5 over 8 attempts with a result.
The Missouri State offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
71/108 · 66% season
Last game
Western Kentucky · Oct 8, 2026: 12/24, 89 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Western Kentucky · Oct 8, 2026: 7 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD
WR · 4 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Western Kentucky · Oct 8, 2026: 3 rec, 77 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearQB | 5 | 71 / 108 | 788 | 7.3 | 4 | 2 |
| Henry Belin IVQB | 4 | 19 / 34 | 250 | 7.4 | 2 | 1 |
| Elijah LeonardQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie CollinsQB | 5 | 103 / 150 | 1,027 | 6.8 | 3 | 3 |
| Landon VarnesQB | 1 | 6 / 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skyler WilliamsQB | 1 | 2 / 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Missouri State's line averages 303.7 lbs against Kennesaw State's 276.2 lbs front — an edge of 27.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri State OLMissouri State OL vs Kennesaw State DL | 303.7 lbs | 276.2 lbs |
| Kennesaw State OLKennesaw State OL vs Missouri State DL | 305.8 lbs | 261.2 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Missouri State: solid line, circles · Kennesaw State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 8 · 68 recorded plays
L 13–34
37%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 63 recorded plays
L 24–34
30%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 64 recorded plays
L 24–30
56%
Success rate
0.39
PPA / play
Casey Woods
no career rating on file
Mark Cala
career +22.9 SP+ offense
Nick Petrino
career +22.9 SP+ offense
Jack Curtis
career +29.3 SP+ defense
L. D. Scott
career +29.3 SP+ defense
Jerry Mack
career −5.4 SP+ overall
Mitch Militello
career +26.4 SP+ offense
Marc Mattioli
career +30.2 SP+ defense
2025 · Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34
Fifth Third Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date