2026 Mississippi State vs 2026 Missouri
Hypothetical
54% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Mississippi State Offense · SP+ 2026: 37.8, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.0, 77th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.5, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Missouri Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.6 pts, 84th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Missouri Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.1 pts, 76th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Mississippi State Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Missouri Experience · returning production 2026: 42% returning, 55th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Mississippi State | 2026 Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2883rd percentile | 0.2064th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | −0.0274th percentile |
| Points per game | 39.086th percentile5 games | 35.877th percentile6 games |
| per game | 28.020th percentile5 games | 17.780th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 80th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 91st percentile
Campus distance
425 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Mississippi State OL vs 2026 Missouri DL | 323.2 lbs | 274.6 lbs |
| 2026 Missouri OL vs 2026 Mississippi State DL | 309.3 lbs | 286.9 lbs |
2026 Mississippi State line yards 3.03 · 2026 Missouri stuff rate 24.9%
2026 Missouri line yards 2.92 · 2026 Mississippi State stuff rate 13.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Mississippi State leads 3–2 since 2000
Mississippi State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Mississippi State 31–24 Missouri | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2025 | Mississippi State 27–49 Missouri | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
| 2024 | Mississippi State 20–39 Missouri | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2020 | Mississippi State 51–32 Missouri | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2015 | Mississippi State 31–13 Missouri | Memorial Stadium · Missouri home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jeff Lebby
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 59th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Zach Arnett
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Eli Drinkwitz
OC
- Chip Lindsey
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.5 plays a game, 73rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Batoon
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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