2026 Middle Tennessee vs 2026 Nevada

Hypothetical

Nevada by 4.9

63% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Middle TennesseePreseason baseline −8.0In-season results −3.6

NevadaPreseason baseline −7.7In-season results +3.5

Middle Tennessee home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Middle Tennessee	2026 Nevada
Offensive / play	0.1035th percentile	0.1035th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.229th percentile	0.1232nd percentile
Points per game	20.816th percentile5 games	27.844th percentile5 games
per game	28.020th percentile5 games	22.058th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Middle Tennessee2026 Nevada

Momentum

Middle Tennessee→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Nevada↗ rising (+23 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Middle Tennessee

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 16th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 6th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

2026 Nevada

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 23rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 36th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+13)

Campus distance

1835 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Middle Tennessee OL vs 2026 Nevada DL	305.2 lbs	266.5 lbs
2026 Nevada OL vs 2026 Middle Tennessee DL	298.8 lbs	287.6 lbs

2026 Middle Tennessee line yards 3.25 · 2026 Nevada stuff rate 15.0%

2026 Nevada line yards 3.09 · 2026 Middle Tennessee stuff rate 13.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Middle Tennessee leads 2–0 since 2000

Middle Tennessee has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Middle Tennessee 27–20 Nevada	Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home
2025	Middle Tennessee 14–13 Nevada	Mackay Stadium · Nevada home

Coaching & program context

2026 Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason

Anthony Scelfo

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)

Brian Stewart

career average +30.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Nevada

Jeff Choate

Brett Bartolone
David Gilbertson

career average +14.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.0 plays a game, 39th percentile)

Kane Ioane

career average +26.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

Listed as Air raid on the 2026 page. Threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS.

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.