2026 Michigan vs 2026 Western Michigan
Hypothetical
85% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 51st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.1, 24th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.4, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 270.1 pts, 92nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Western Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.4 pts, 19th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 84th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Western Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 100% returning, 100th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Michigan | 2026 Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0932nd percentile | 0.1446th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1196th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 23.026th percentile5 games | 25.734th percentile6 games |
| per game | 15.886th percentile5 games | 17.382nd percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 84th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 28th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 36th percentile
Campus distance
95 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Michigan OL vs 2026 Western Michigan DL | 307.7 lbs | 265.6 lbs |
| 2026 Western Michigan OL vs 2026 Michigan DL | 302.9 lbs | 277.2 lbs |
2026 Michigan line yards 3.16 · 2026 Western Michigan stuff rate 17.0%
2026 Western Michigan line yards 2.98 · 2026 Michigan stuff rate 22.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Michigan leads 7–0 since 2000
Michigan has won 7 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Michigan 13–12 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2021 | Michigan 47–14 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2018 | Michigan 49–3 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2011 | Michigan 34–10 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2009 | Michigan 31–7 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2002 | Michigan 35–12 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2001 | Michigan 38–21 Western Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kyle Whittingham (First season as Michigan's head coach)
OC
- Jason Beck
career average +29.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 20th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)
DC
- Jay Hill
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Lance Taylor
OC
- Walt Bell
career average +27.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.8 plays a game, 12th percentile)
DC
- Duane Vaughn (co-DC)
- Greer Martini
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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