Saturday, October 17

Western Michigan

4–2

Central Michigan

3–3

1:30 PM ETKelly/Shorts StadiumMount Pleasant, MI

Weather

Clear50°FNW 10 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 1:30 PM ET · Updated 2:03 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Mount Pleasant · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear50°FNW 10 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

72%

Western Michigan win probability

Central Michigan 28%

Western Michigan by 7.9

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Western Michigan's case

Western Michigan's defense leads its matchup in

Western Michigan's defense is in the 82nd percentile for points allowed per game this season. Central Michigan's offense is in the 7th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Central Michigan's answer

Central Michigan has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Western Michigan's defense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Western Michigan a 72% chance to win and predicts Western Michigan by 7.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Western Michigan has the ball

Western Michigan offense: 46th
Central Michigan defense: 22nd

Show the underlying numbers

Western Michigan offensive per play: 0.1446th percentile · #71 nationally
Central Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.1522nd percentile · #104 nationally
Western Michigan: 42%39th percentile · #85 nationally
Central Michigan success rate allowed: 47%9th percentile · #126 nationally
Western Michigan points per game: 25.734th percentile · #90 nationally
Central Michigan points allowed per game: 26.330th percentile · #96 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Western Michigan offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.14
Rush success: 42.3%

Central Michigan defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 56.4%

When Central Michigan has the ball

Central Michigan offense: 25th
Western Michigan defense: 48th

Show the underlying numbers

Central Michigan offensive PPA per play: 0.0625th percentile · #102 nationally
Western Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
Central Michigan success rate: 38%14th percentile · #119 nationally
Western Michigan success rate allowed: 43%23rd percentile · #106 nationally
Central Michigan points per game: 17.07th percentile · #127 nationally
Western Michigan points allowed per game: 17.382nd percentile · #25 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Central Michigan offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 46.4%

Western Michigan defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 41.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Broc Lowry · 93% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 46%
Usage: charted in this direction: 52 attempts
Yards / attempt: 4.3; over 51 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 53%; over 51 attempts with a result

114 of 115 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 97 short · 17 deep · 1 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (46%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.4 over 23 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Western Michigan offense in 2026

Broc Lowry

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

95/139 · 68% season

Passing yards: 996
Touchdowns: 7
Interception: 1

Last game

Kent State · Oct 10, 2026: 18/26, 257 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Jalen Buckley

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 78
Rushing yards: 392
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Kent State · Oct 10, 2026: 16 carries, 105 yds, 0 TD

Aveion Chenault

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 20
Receiving yards: 292
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Kent State · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 20 yds, 0 TD

Western Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Western Michigan player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Western Michigan — Passing production
Player
Broc LowryQB	6	95 / 139	996	7.2	7	1
Trey PettyQB	3	5 / 8	59	7.4	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Central Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Central Michigan player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Central Michigan — Passing production
Player
Angel H FloresQB	6	40 / 67	313	4.7	1	2
Jadyn GlasserQB	5	22 / 36	225	6.3	1	2
Marcus BeamonQB	2	5 / 8	40	5.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Western Michigan's line averages 302.9 lbs against Central Michigan's 259.3 lbs front — an edge of 43.6 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Western Michigan OLWestern Michigan OL vs Central Michigan DL	302.9 lbs	259.3 lbs
Central Michigan OLCentral Michigan OL vs Western Michigan DL	287.6 lbs	265.6 lbs

Western Michigan
Central Michigan

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Western Michigan

Points per game: 25.7#90 nationally · 34th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 17.3#25 nationally · 82nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 100% of 2025 PPA returns · 100th percentile
Upperclassmen: 52% · 154 of 154 with a class year

Central Michigan

Points per game: 17.0#127 nationally · 7th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 26.3#96 nationally · 30th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 54% of 2025 PPA returns · 62nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

Western Michigan

2026 signing class · #112 nationally: 19th percentile · 171.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #100 nationally: 28th percentile · −0.58 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #108 nationally: 22nd percentile · 572.2

Central Michigan

2026 signing class · #95 nationally: 31st percentile · 178.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #107 nationally: 23rd percentile · −0.64 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #125 nationally: 9th percentile · 540.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Western Michigan: solid line, circles · Central Michigan: dashed line, squares

Western Michigan

Offense · 2026: 21.1 · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4 · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.4 pts · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 100% returning · 100th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Central Michigan

Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.2 · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.5 · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 178.9 pts · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Western Michigan's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 52 recorded plays
vs Kent State
W 38–7
48%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
at Buffalo
W 20–17
48%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 38 recorded plays
vs Boise State
L 7–32
42%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Western Michigan

Head coach: Lance Taylor
career −9.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Walt Bell
career +27.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Duane Vaughn
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Greer Martini
no career rating on file

Central Michigan

Head coach: Matt Drinkall
career −8.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Derek Fulton
Co-offensive coordinator · career +17.6 SP+ offense; Jim Chapin
career +17.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Sean Cronin
career +25.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Western Michigan leads 15–11 since 2000

2025 · Western Michigan 24, Central Michigan 21
Waldo Stadium
2024 · Central Michigan 16, Western Michigan 14
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2023 · Western Michigan 38, Central Michigan 28
Waldo Stadium
2022 · Western Michigan 12, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2021 · Central Michigan 42, Western Michigan 30
Waldo Stadium
2020 · Western Michigan 52, Central Michigan 44
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2019 · Western Michigan 31, Central Michigan 15
Waldo Stadium
2018 · Western Michigan 35, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2017 · Central Michigan 35, Western Michigan 28
Waldo Stadium
2016 · Western Michigan 49, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2015 · Western Michigan 41, Central Michigan 39
Waldo Stadium
2014 · Western Michigan 32, Central Michigan 20
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2013 · Central Michigan 27, Western Michigan 22
Waldo Stadium
2012 · Western Michigan 42, Central Michigan 31
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2011 · Western Michigan 44, Central Michigan 14
Waldo Stadium
2010 · Central Michigan 26, Western Michigan 22
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2009 · Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 23
Waldo Stadium
2008 · Central Michigan 38, Western Michigan 28
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2007 · Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 31
Waldo Stadium
2006 · Central Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2005 · Western Michigan 31, Central Michigan 24
Waldo Stadium
2004 · Central Michigan 24, Western Michigan 21
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2003 · Western Michigan 44, Central Michigan 21
Waldo Stadium
2002 · Western Michigan 35, Central Michigan 10
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
2001 · Western Michigan 20, Central Michigan 17
Waldo Stadium
2000 · Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 17

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Western Michigan: 6 games
Central Michigan: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Western Michigan's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Central Michigan has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Western Michigan has the ball

Western Michigan offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Central Michigan defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Central Michigan has the ball

Central Michigan offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Western Michigan defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Broc Lowry

Jalen Buckley

Aveion Chenault

Western Michigan player production

Central Michigan player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

Recruiting

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

Season percentile profiles

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

Western Michigan's recent games

vs Kent State

at Buffalo

vs Boise State

The coaching staff

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Western Michigan's defense leads its matchup in