2026 Michigan State vs 2026 Toledo

Hypothetical

Toledo by 0.1

50% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Michigan StatePreseason baseline +3.6In-season results +1.0

ToledoPreseason baseline +6.8In-season results −4.6

Toledo home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Michigan State	2026 Toledo
Offensive / play	0.0215th percentile	0.2374th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1815th percentile	0.0166th percentile
Points per game	21.318th percentile6 games	36.779th percentile6 games
per game	25.735th percentile6 games	25.241st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Michigan State2026 Toledo

Momentum

Michigan State↗ rising (+11 pctl over 3 seasons)

Toledo→ steady (0 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Michigan State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 70th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 45th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−25)

2026 Toledo

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 34th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 41st percentile

Matching its talent (+7)

Campus distance

85 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Michigan State OL vs 2026 Toledo DL	305.1 lbs	260.9 lbs
2026 Toledo OL vs 2026 Michigan State DL	297.5 lbs	269.0 lbs

2026 Michigan State line yards 2.98 · 2026 Toledo stuff rate 21.6%

2026 Toledo line yards 3.20 · 2026 Michigan State stuff rate 20.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Michigan State leads 1–0 since 2000

Michigan State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Michigan State 30–20 Toledo	Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Michigan State

Pat Fitzgerald (First season as Michigan State's head coach)

Nick Sheridan

career average +31.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 29th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.3 plays a game, 44th percentile)

Joe Rossi
Max Bullough (co-DC)

career average +23.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Toledo

Mike Jacobs (First season as Toledo's head coach)

Cris Reisert (co-OC)

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread / run-pass option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 60th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.7 plays a game, 61st percentile)

Jahmal Brown

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.