Saturday, October 17

Toledo

4–2

Eastern Michigan

4–3

3:30 PM ETRynearson StadiumYpsilanti, MI

Weather

Clear51°FNW 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 10:49 AM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Ypsilanti · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear51°FNW 12 mphGusts 18 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

71%

Toledo win probability

Eastern Michigan 29%

Toledo by 8.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Toledo's case

Toledo's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Toledo's defense is in the 93rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Eastern Michigan's offense is in the 29th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Eastern Michigan's answer

Eastern Michigan has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Toledo's defense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Toledo a 71% chance to win and predicts Toledo by 8.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo offense: 74th
Eastern Michigan defense: 28th

Show the underlying numbers

Toledo offensive per play: 0.2374th percentile · #34 nationally
Eastern Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.1328th percentile · #95 nationally
Toledo success rate: 42%41st percentile · #82 nationally
Eastern Michigan success rate allowed: 42%34th percentile · #91 nationally
Toledo points per game: 36.779th percentile · #30 nationally
Eastern Michigan per game: 24.743rd percentile · #79 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Toledo offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.41
Rush success: 43.4%

Eastern Michigan defense · 6 of the last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.24
Rush success allowed: 44.1%

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

Eastern Michigan offense: 25th
Toledo defense: 66th

Show the underlying numbers

Eastern Michigan offensive PPA per play: 0.0625th percentile · #102 nationally
Toledo PPA allowed per play: 0.0166th percentile · #43 nationally
Eastern Michigan success rate: 41%29th percentile · #98 nationally
Toledo success rate allowed: 33%93rd percentile · #10 nationally
Eastern Michigan points per game: 22.623rd percentile · #107 nationally
Toledo points allowed per game: 25.241st percentile · #81 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Eastern Michigan offense · Last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.14
Rush success: 44.8%

Toledo defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.36
Rush success allowed: 30.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

John Alan Richter · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 38%
Usage: charted in this direction: 57 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.5; over 57 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 65%; over 57 attempts with a result

152 of 153 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 127 short · 25 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Toledo offense in 2026

John Alan Richter

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

120/188 · 64% season

Passing yards: 1,565
Touchdowns: 13
Interception: 1

Last game

Buffalo · Oct 10, 2026: 22/35, 203 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Connor Walendzak

RB · 6 games

Carries: 67
Rushing yards: 386
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Buffalo · Oct 10, 2026: 10 carries, 50 yds, 1 TD

Adjatay Dabbs

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 27
Receiving yards: 402
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Buffalo · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 35 yds, 0 TD

Toledo player tables

Who is producing

Toledo player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Toledo — Passing production
Player
John Alan RichterQB	6	120 / 188	1,565	8.3	13	1
Khamoni RobinsonQB	1	2 / 6	21	3.5	0	1
Walter MosesQB	1	1 / 1	40	40.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Eastern Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Eastern Michigan player production

2026 evidence · 7 games in this window · 7 with recorded rows in this view

Eastern Michigan — Passing production
Player
Noah KimQB	7	153 / 249	1,464	5.9	9	4
Jace StuckeyQB	1	2 / 2	14	7.0	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Toledo's line averages 297.5 lbs against Eastern Michigan's 268.9 lbs front — an edge of 28.6 lbs a man.

Toledo's line average is based on 20 of 22 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Toledo OLToledo OL vs Eastern Michigan DL	297.5 lbs	268.9 lbs
Eastern Michigan OLEastern Michigan OL vs Toledo DL	302.8 lbs	260.9 lbs

Toledo
Eastern Michigan

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Toledo

Points per game: 36.7#30 nationally · 79th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 25.2#81 nationally · 41st percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 66% of 2025 PPA returns · 78th percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 134 of 134 with a class year

Eastern Michigan

Points per game: 22.6#107 nationally · 23rd percentile · 7 games
Points allowed per game: 24.7#79 nationally · 43rd percentile · 7 games
Returning production: 72% of 2025 PPA returns · 86th percentile
Upperclassmen: 59% · 115 of 115 with a class year

Recruiting

Toledo

2026 signing class · #121 nationally: 12th percentile · 162.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #90 nationally: 35th percentile · −0.46 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #116 nationally: 16th percentile · 556.3

Eastern Michigan

2026 signing class · #106 nationally: 23rd percentile · 175.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #93 nationally: 33rd percentile · −0.50 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #103 nationally: 26th percentile · 580.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Toledo: solid line, circles · Eastern Michigan: dashed line, squares

Toledo

Offense · 2026: 24.1 · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.0 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2 · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.5 pts · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 66% returning · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Eastern Michigan

Offense · SP+ 2026: 19.5 · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.3 · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.4 pts · 23rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 72% returning · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Toledo's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 61 recorded plays
vs Buffalo
L 8–23
34%
Success rate
0.09
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 87 recorded plays
at Ball State
W 39–24
41%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 54 recorded plays
vs San Diego State
W 41–16
46%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Toledo

Head coach: Mike Jacobs
First season as Toledo's head coach · no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Cris Reisert
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Jahmal Brown
no career rating on file

Eastern Michigan

Head coach: Chris Creighton
career −11.4 SP+ overall
Photo: The Ray Center - CHARACTER COUNTS!, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Mike Piatkowski
career +17.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kasey Teegardin
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Tate Omli
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

Toledo leads 22–3 since 2000

2024 · Toledo 29, Eastern Michigan 28
Rynearson Stadium
2023 · Toledo 49, Eastern Michigan 23
Glass Bowl
2022 · Toledo 27, Eastern Michigan 24
Rynearson Stadium
2021 · Eastern Michigan 52, Toledo 49
Glass Bowl
2020 · Toledo 45, Eastern Michigan 28
Rynearson Stadium
2019 · Toledo 37, Eastern Michigan 34
Glass Bowl
2018 · Eastern Michigan 28, Toledo 26
Rynearson Stadium
2017 · Toledo 20, Eastern Michigan 15
Glass Bowl
2016 · Toledo 35, Eastern Michigan 20
Rynearson Stadium
2015 · Toledo 63, Eastern Michigan 20
Glass Bowl
2014 · Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 16
Rynearson Stadium
2013 · Toledo 55, Eastern Michigan 16
Glass Bowl
2012 · Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 47
Rynearson Stadium
2011 · Toledo 54, Eastern Michigan 16
Glass Bowl
2010 · Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 7
Rynearson Stadium
2009 · Toledo 47, Eastern Michigan 21
Glass Bowl
2008 · Toledo 41, Eastern Michigan 17
Rynearson Stadium
2007 · Toledo 52, Eastern Michigan 28
Glass Bowl
2006 · Eastern Michigan 17, Toledo 13
Rynearson Stadium
2005 · Toledo 30, Eastern Michigan 3
Glass Bowl
2004 · Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 32
Rynearson Stadium
2003 · Toledo 49, Eastern Michigan 14
Glass Bowl
2002 · Toledo 65, Eastern Michigan 13
Rynearson Stadium
2001 · Toledo 28, Eastern Michigan 7
Glass Bowl
2000 · Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 14

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Toledo: 6 games
Eastern Michigan: 7 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Toledo's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Eastern Michigan has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Eastern Michigan defense · 6 of the last 7 games · garbage time excluded

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

Eastern Michigan offense · Last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Toledo defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

John Alan Richter

Connor Walendzak

Adjatay Dabbs

Toledo player production

Eastern Michigan player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

Recruiting

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

Season percentile profiles

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

Toledo's recent games

vs Buffalo

at Ball State

vs San Diego State

The coaching staff

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Toledo's defense leads its matchup in allowed