2026 Miami vs 2026 Stanford

Hypothetical

Miami by 38.4

100% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MiamiPreseason baseline +24.0In-season results +5.1

StanfordIn-season results −7.8Preseason baseline +1.1

Miami home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Miami	2026 Stanford
Offensive / play	0.42100th percentile	0.0318th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0685th percentile	0.370th percentile
Points per game	49.6100th percentile5 games	15.73rd percentile6 games
per game	9.8100th percentile5 games	41.51st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Miami2026 Stanford

Momentum

Miami→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Stanford↘ falling (−13 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Miami

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 95th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 98th percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

2026 Stanford

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 69th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 10th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−59)

Campus distance

2565 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Miami OL vs 2026 Stanford DL	318.7 lbs	277.5 lbs
2026 Stanford OL vs 2026 Miami DL	303.9 lbs	263.5 lbs

2026 Miami line yards 3.89 · 2026 Stanford stuff rate 15.0%

2026 Stanford line yards 2.64 · 2026 Miami stuff rate 24.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Miami leads 2–0 since 2000

Miami has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Miami 45–6 Stanford	Stanford Stadium · Stanford home
2025	Miami 42–7 Stanford	Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home

Coaching & program context

2026 Miami

Mario Cristobal

Shannon Dawson

career average +30.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 56th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)

Corey Hetherman

career average +14.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Stanford

Tavita Pritchard (First season as Stanford's head coach)

Terry Heffernan

no career track record on file

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 91st percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.3 plays a game, 28th percentile)

Kris Richard

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.