2026 Massachusetts vs 2026 Rutgers

Hypothetical

Rutgers by 11.5

79% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MassachusettsPreseason baseline −24.0In-season results +10.2

RutgersIn-season results −7.8Preseason baseline +5.5

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Massachusetts	2026 Rutgers
Offensive / play	0.2064th percentile	0.1138th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0377th percentile	0.238th percentile
Points per game	29.751st percentile6 games	30.053rd percentile5 games
per game	18.278th percentile6 games	32.212th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Massachusetts2026 Rutgers

Momentum

Massachusetts↗ rising (+20 pctl over 3 seasons)

Rutgers↘ falling (−37 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Massachusetts

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 7th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 23rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+16)

2026 Rutgers

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 71st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 32nd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−38)

Campus distance

160 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Massachusetts OL vs 2026 Rutgers DL	314.7 lbs	272.1 lbs
2026 Rutgers OL vs 2026 Massachusetts DL	311.0 lbs	273.1 lbs

2026 Massachusetts line yards 3.25 · 2026 Rutgers stuff rate 18.4%

2026 Rutgers line yards 2.89 · 2026 Massachusetts stuff rate 20.8%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

Massachusetts has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Massachusetts 37–21 Rutgers	SHI Stadium · Rutgers home
2019	Massachusetts 21–48 Rutgers	High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home

Coaching & program context

2026 Massachusetts

Joe Harasymiak

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 25th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.5 plays a game, 1st percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Rutgers

Greg Schiano

Kirk Ciarrocca

career average +28.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 43rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)

Travis Johansen

no career track record on file

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.