Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
at
Buffalo
3–3
1:00 PM ETUB StadiumAmherst, NY
Slight chance of mixed precipitation46°FNW 14 mphGusts 24 mphPrecip 15%
At kickoff · 1:00 PM ET · Updated 10:11 AM ET · National Weather Service
Amherst · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Slight chance of mixed precipitation46°FNW 14 mphGusts 24 mphPrecip 15%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
26%
Massachusetts win probability
Buffalo 74%
Buffalo by 9.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Massachusetts's case
Massachusetts's defense is in the 78th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Buffalo's offense is in the 17th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Buffalo's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Massachusetts's defense.
03 · What could swing it
Massachusetts's leading passer has thrown 65% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
William Watson III · 65% of charted pass attempts
72 of 73 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 60 short · 12 deep · 1 not stated
The Massachusetts offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
74/100 · 74% season
Last game
Eastern Michigan · Oct 3, 2026: 20/27, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Miami (OH) · Oct 10, 2026: 8 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Miami (OH) · Oct 10, 2026: 9 rec, 91 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Watson IIIQB | 5 | 74 / 100 | 820 | 8.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Aedan McCarthyQB | 2 | 17 / 33 | 182 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan InagawaQB | 1 | 6 / 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason WrightQB | 5 | 63 / 129 | 726 | 5.6 | 4 | 3 |
| Elijah HolmesQB | 2 | 35 / 61 | 253 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Massachusetts's line averages 314.7 lbs against Buffalo's 254.4 lbs front — an edge of 60.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts OLMassachusetts OL vs Buffalo DL | 314.7 lbs | 254.4 lbs |
| Buffalo OLBuffalo OL vs Massachusetts DL | 298.1 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Massachusetts: solid line, circles · Buffalo: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 67 recorded plays
L 19–20
36%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 42 recorded plays
L 14–38
48%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 44 recorded plays
W 35–6
41%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Joe Harasymiak
career −36.6 SP+ overall
Tony Tokarz
no career rating on file
Brian Dougherty
no career rating on file
2025 · Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2024 · Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 3
UB Stadium
2022 · Buffalo 34, Massachusetts 7
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2015 · Massachusetts 31, Buffalo 26
UB Stadium
2014 · Buffalo 41, Massachusetts 21
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2013 · Buffalo 32, Massachusetts 3
UB Stadium
2012 · Buffalo 29, Massachusetts 19
Gillette Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date