Saturday, October 17

Rutgers

1–4

Maryland

2–4

12:30 PM ETSECU StadiumCollege Park, MD

Weather

Partly cloudy53°FNW 18 mphGusts 32 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 12:30 PM ET · Updated 10:53 AM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

College Park · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy53°FNW 18 mphGusts 32 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

35%

Rutgers win probability

Maryland 65%

Maryland by 5.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Rutgers's case

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Rutgers's offense is in the 53rd percentile for points per game this season. Maryland's defense is in the 9th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Maryland's answer

Maryland's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Maryland's offense is in the 45th percentile for points per game this season. Rutgers's defense is in the 12th percentile for points allowed per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Rutgers leans on its top passer

Rutgers's leading passer has thrown 65% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers offense: 38th
Maryland defense: 42nd

Show the underlying numbers

Rutgers offensive per play: 0.1138th percentile · #85 nationally
Maryland PPA allowed per play: 0.0842nd percentile · #75 nationally
Rutgers: 45%60th percentile · #56 nationally
Maryland success rate allowed: 42%38th percentile · #86 nationally
Rutgers points per game: 30.053rd percentile · #66 nationally
Maryland points allowed per game: 32.79th percentile · #124 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Rutgers offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.38
Rush success: 47.5%

Maryland defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 46.4%

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offense: 18th
Rutgers defense: 8th

Show the underlying numbers

Maryland offensive PPA per play: 0.0318th percentile · #111 nationally
Rutgers PPA allowed per play: 0.238th percentile · #126 nationally
Maryland success rate: 40%23rd percentile · #106 nationally
Rutgers success rate allowed: 46%10th percentile · #124 nationally
Maryland points per game: 28.045th percentile · #76 nationally
Rutgers points allowed per game: 32.212th percentile · #121 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Maryland offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 36.8%

Rutgers defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 50.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Dylan Lonergan · 65% of charted pass attempts

Throwing over the middle

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 33 attempts
Yards / attempt: 10.8; over 33 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 58%; over 33 attempts with a result

78 of 83 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 69 short · 9 deep · 5 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Rutgers offense in 2026

Dylan Lonergan

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

51/92 · 55% season

Passing yards: 775
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Indiana · Oct 3, 2026: 5/10, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Antwan Raymond

RB · 5 games

Carries: 89
Rushing yards: 469
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Indiana · Oct 3, 2026: 11 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD

KJ Duff

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 33
Receiving yards: 628
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Indiana · Oct 3, 2026: 4 rec, 78 yds, 0 TD

Rutgers player tables

Who is producing

Rutgers player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Rutgers — Passing production
Player
Dylan LonerganQB	4	51 / 92	775	8.4	7	5
AJ SuraceQB	4	33 / 53	475	9.0	6	4
Jakob AndersonP	1	1 / 1	40	40.0	0	0
Sean AshenfelderQB	1	1 / 1	14	14.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Maryland player tables

Who is producing

Maryland player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Maryland — Passing production
Player
Malik WashingtonQB	6	136 / 222	1,352	6.1	7	6
Cardell WilliamsQB	3	6 / 7	63	9.0	1	0
Jack CapaldiQB	1	2 / 2	35	17.5	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Rutgers's line averages 311.0 lbs against Maryland's 289.2 lbs front — an edge of 21.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Rutgers OLRutgers OL vs Maryland DL	311.0 lbs	289.2 lbs
Maryland OLMaryland OL vs Rutgers DL	311.2 lbs	272.1 lbs

Rutgers
Maryland

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Rutgers

Points per game: 30.0#66 nationally · 53rd percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 32.2#121 nationally · 12th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 44% of 2025 PPA returns · 56th percentile
Upperclassmen: 60% · 139 of 139 with a class year

Maryland

Points per game: 28.0#76 nationally · 45th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 32.7#124 nationally · 9th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 54% of 2025 PPA returns · 62nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Recruiting

Rutgers

2026 signing class · #36 nationally: 74th percentile · 220.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #48 nationally: 66th percentile · 709.0

Maryland

2026 signing class · #43 nationally: 69th percentile · 215.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #29 nationally: 80th percentile · 0.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #46 nationally: 67th percentile · 719.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Rutgers: solid line, circles · Maryland: dashed line, squares

Rutgers

Offense · 2026: 29.2 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.7 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 220.7 pts · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 44% returning · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Maryland

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2 · 43rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.2 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 215.9 pts · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Rutgers's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 34 recorded plays
vs Indiana
L 15–47
35%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
Sep 25 · 39 recorded plays
vs Howard
vs FCS
W 58–7
64%
Success rate
0.71
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 70 recorded plays
vs USC
L 35–42
51%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Rutgers

Head coach: Greg Schiano
career +1.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Kirk Ciarrocca
career +28.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Travis Johansen
no career rating on file

Maryland

Head coach: Mike Locksley
career −5.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Clint Trickett
career +22.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.0 SP+ defense; Ted Monachino
career +26.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Atlanta Falcons, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Maryland leads 8–6 since 2000

2025 · Rutgers 35, Maryland 20
SHI Stadium
2024 · Rutgers 31, Maryland 17
SECU Stadium
2023 · Maryland 42, Rutgers 24
SHI Stadium
2022 · Maryland 37, Rutgers 0
SECU Stadium
2021 · Maryland 40, Rutgers 16
SHI Stadium
2020 · Rutgers 27, Maryland 24
SECU Stadium
2019 · Maryland 48, Rutgers 7
High Point Solutions Stadium
2018 · Maryland 34, Rutgers 7
SECU Stadium
2017 · Rutgers 31, Maryland 24
High Point Solutions Stadium
2016 · Maryland 31, Rutgers 13
SECU Stadium
2015 · Maryland 46, Rutgers 41
High Point Solutions Stadium
2014 · Rutgers 41, Maryland 38
SECU Stadium
2009 · Rutgers 34, Maryland 13
SECU Stadium
2007 · Maryland 34, Rutgers 24
High Point Solutions Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Rutgers: 5 games
Maryland: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Maryland's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Rutgers leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Maryland defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Rutgers defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing over the middle

Who's driving the offense?

Dylan Lonergan

Antwan Raymond

KJ Duff

Rutgers player production

Maryland player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Rutgers

Maryland

Recruiting

Rutgers

Maryland

Season percentile profiles

Rutgers

Maryland

Rutgers's recent games

vs Indiana

vs Howard

vs USC

The coaching staff

Rutgers

Maryland

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources