2026 Maryland vs 2026 Rutgers
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Maryland Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rutgers Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.2, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rutgers Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.7, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rutgers Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 215.9 pts, 69th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Rutgers Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 220.7 pts, 74th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Maryland Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning, 62nd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Rutgers Experience · returning production 2026: 44% returning, 56th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Maryland | 2026 Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0318th percentile | 0.1138th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0842nd percentile | 0.238th percentile |
| Points per game | 28.045th percentile6 games | 30.053rd percentile5 games |
| per game | 32.79th percentile6 games | 32.212th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 71st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 32nd percentile
Campus distance
170 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Maryland OL vs 2026 Rutgers DL | 311.2 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
| 2026 Rutgers OL vs 2026 Maryland DL | 311.0 lbs | 289.2 lbs |
2026 Maryland line yards 2.86 · 2026 Rutgers stuff rate 18.4%
2026 Rutgers line yards 2.89 · 2026 Maryland stuff rate 18.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Maryland leads 8–6 since 2000
Rutgers has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Maryland 20–35 Rutgers | SHI Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2024 | Maryland 17–31 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2023 | Maryland 42–24 Rutgers | SHI Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2022 | Maryland 37–0 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2021 | Maryland 40–16 Rutgers | SHI Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2020 | Maryland 24–27 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2019 | Maryland 48–7 Rutgers | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2018 | Maryland 34–7 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2017 | Maryland 24–31 Rutgers | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2016 | Maryland 31–13 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2015 | Maryland 46–41 Rutgers | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2014 | Maryland 38–41 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2009 | Maryland 13–34 Rutgers | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2007 | Maryland 34–24 Rutgers | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mike Locksley
OC
- Clint Trickett
career average +22.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 97th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.0 plays a game, 69th percentile)
DC
- Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (co-DC)
- Ted Monachino
career average +26.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Greg Schiano
OC
- Kirk Ciarrocca
career average +28.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 43rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)
DC
- Travis Johansen
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Rutgers at Maryland · October 17, 2026
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
