Saturday, October 17

Maryland

2–4

Rutgers

1–4

12:30 PM ETSECU StadiumCollege Park, MD

Weather

Clear52°FNW 18 mphGusts 32 mphPrecip 5%

At kickoff · 12:30 PM ET · Updated 2:22 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

College Park · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear52°FNW 18 mphGusts 32 mphPrecip 5%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

65%

Maryland win probability

Rutgers 35%

Maryland by 5.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Maryland's case

Maryland's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Maryland's offense is in the 45th percentile for points per game this season. Rutgers's defense is in the 12th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Rutgers's answer

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Rutgers's offense is in the 53rd percentile for points per game this season. Maryland's defense is in the 9th percentile for points allowed per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 32 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offense: 18th
Rutgers defense: 8th

Show the underlying numbers

Maryland offensive per play: 0.0318th percentile · #111 nationally
Rutgers PPA allowed per play: 0.238th percentile · #126 nationally
Maryland: 40%23rd percentile · #106 nationally
Rutgers success rate allowed: 46%10th percentile · #124 nationally
Maryland points per game: 28.045th percentile · #76 nationally
Rutgers points allowed per game: 32.212th percentile · #121 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Maryland offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 36.8%

Rutgers defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 50.5%

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers offense: 38th
Maryland defense: 42nd

Show the underlying numbers

Rutgers offensive PPA per play: 0.1138th percentile · #85 nationally
Maryland PPA allowed per play: 0.0842nd percentile · #75 nationally
Rutgers success rate: 45%60th percentile · #56 nationally
Maryland success rate allowed: 42%38th percentile · #86 nationally
Rutgers points per game: 30.053rd percentile · #66 nationally
Maryland points allowed per game: 32.79th percentile · #124 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Rutgers offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.38
Rush success: 47.5%

Maryland defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 46.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Malik Washington · 95% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 71 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.2; over 71 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 69%; over 71 attempts with a result

173 of 179 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 157 short · 16 deep · 6 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Maryland offense in 2026

Malik Washington

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

136/222 · 61% season

Passing yards: 1,352
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 6

Last game

Ohio State · Oct 10, 2026: 12/25, 64 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Iverson Howard

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 56
Rushing yards: 217
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Ohio State · Oct 10, 2026: 4 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD

Chris Durr Jr.

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 46
Receiving yards: 476
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Ohio State · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 15 yds, 0 TD

Maryland player tables

Who is producing

Maryland player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Maryland — Passing production
Player
Malik WashingtonQB	6	136 / 222	1,352	6.1	7	6
Cardell WilliamsQB	3	6 / 7	63	9.0	1	0
Jack CapaldiQB	1	2 / 2	35	17.5	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Rutgers player tables

Who is producing

Rutgers player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Rutgers — Passing production
Player
Dylan LonerganQB	4	51 / 92	775	8.4	7	5
AJ SuraceQB	4	33 / 53	475	9.0	6	4
Jakob AndersonP	1	1 / 1	40	40.0	0	0
Sean AshenfelderQB	1	1 / 1	14	14.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Maryland's line averages 311.2 lbs against Rutgers's 272.1 lbs front — an edge of 39.1 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Maryland OLMaryland OL vs Rutgers DL	311.2 lbs	272.1 lbs
Rutgers OLRutgers OL vs Maryland DL	311.0 lbs	289.2 lbs

Maryland
Rutgers

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Maryland

Points per game: 28.0#76 nationally · 45th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 32.7#124 nationally · 9th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 54% of 2025 PPA returns · 62nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Rutgers

Points per game: 30.0#66 nationally · 53rd percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 32.2#121 nationally · 12th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 44% of 2025 PPA returns · 56th percentile
Upperclassmen: 60% · 139 of 139 with a class year

Recruiting

Maryland

2026 signing class · #43 nationally: 69th percentile · 215.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #29 nationally: 80th percentile · 0.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #46 nationally: 67th percentile · 719.6

Rutgers

2026 signing class · #36 nationally: 74th percentile · 220.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #48 nationally: 66th percentile · 709.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Maryland: solid line, circles · Rutgers: dashed line, squares

Maryland

Offense · 2026: 26.2 · 43rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.2 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 215.9 pts · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning · 62nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Rutgers

Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.7 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 220.7 pts · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 44% returning · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Maryland's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 51 recorded plays
at Ohio State
L 16–45
24%
Success rate
−0.24
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 57 recorded plays
at Nebraska
L 23–48
26%
Success rate
−0.23
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 47 recorded plays
vs UCLA
L 3–54
26%
Success rate
−0.53
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Maryland

Head coach: Mike Locksley
career −5.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Clint Trickett
career +22.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.0 SP+ defense; Ted Monachino
career +26.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Atlanta Falcons, CC BY 3.0

Rutgers

Head coach: Greg Schiano
career +1.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Kirk Ciarrocca
career +28.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Travis Johansen
no career rating on file

Head-to-head

Maryland leads 8–6 since 2000

2025 · Rutgers 35, Maryland 20
SHI Stadium
2024 · Rutgers 31, Maryland 17
SECU Stadium
2023 · Maryland 42, Rutgers 24
SHI Stadium
2022 · Maryland 37, Rutgers 0
SECU Stadium
2021 · Maryland 40, Rutgers 16
SHI Stadium
2020 · Rutgers 27, Maryland 24
SECU Stadium
2019 · Maryland 48, Rutgers 7
High Point Solutions Stadium
2018 · Maryland 34, Rutgers 7
SECU Stadium
2017 · Rutgers 31, Maryland 24
High Point Solutions Stadium
2016 · Maryland 31, Rutgers 13
SECU Stadium
2015 · Maryland 46, Rutgers 41
High Point Solutions Stadium
2014 · Rutgers 41, Maryland 38
SECU Stadium
2009 · Rutgers 34, Maryland 13
SECU Stadium
2007 · Maryland 34, Rutgers 24
High Point Solutions Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Maryland: 6 games
Rutgers: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Maryland's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Rutgers's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Rutgers defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Maryland defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Malik Washington

Iverson Howard

Chris Durr Jr.

Maryland player production

Rutgers player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Maryland

Rutgers

Recruiting

Maryland

Rutgers

Season percentile profiles

Maryland

Rutgers

Maryland's recent games

at Ohio State

at Nebraska

vs UCLA

The coaching staff

Maryland

Rutgers

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources