2026 Marshall vs 2026 South Alabama

Hypothetical

South Alabama by 7.5

70% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MarshallIn-season results −8.8Preseason baseline +1.3

South AlabamaPreseason baseline −2.3In-season results −0.2

South Alabama home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Marshall	2026 South Alabama
Offensive / play	0.1138th percentile	0.2374th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.312nd percentile	0.273rd percentile
Points per game	22.020th percentile6 games	38.885th percentile6 games
per game	33.78th percentile6 games	34.57th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Marshall2026 South Alabama

Momentum

Marshall↘ falling (−43 pctl over 3 seasons)

South Alabama↘ falling (−35 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Marshall

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 13th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 14th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

2026 South Alabama

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 19th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−13)

Campus distance

620 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Marshall OL vs 2026 South Alabama DL	302.2 lbs	282.1 lbs
2026 South Alabama OL vs 2026 Marshall DL	301.6 lbs	276.4 lbs

2026 Marshall line yards 3.17 · 2026 South Alabama stuff rate 18.5%

2026 South Alabama line yards 3.21 · 2026 Marshall stuff rate 15.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · South Alabama leads 1–0 since 2000

South Alabama has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2023	Marshall 0–28 South Alabama	Hancock Whitney Stadium · South Alabama home

Coaching & program context

2026 Marshall

Tony Gibson

Rod Smith

career average +30.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 71st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.5 plays a game, 79th percentile)

Brad Lambert

career average +28.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 South Alabama

Major Applewhite

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 35% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)

Jason Washington (co-DC)
Todd Orlando

career average +26.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: no scheme listed

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.