Tuesday, October 20

Marshall

3–3

South Alabama

4–2

7:30 PM ETJoan C. Edwards StadiumHuntington, WV

Weather

Forecast available from Tuesday, October 13.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Marshall's case

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in

Marshall's offense is in the 53rd percentile for success rate this season. South Alabama's defense is in the 1st percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · South Alabama's answer

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

South Alabama's offense is in the 85th percentile for points per game this season. Marshall's defense is in the 8th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense: 38th
South Alabama defense: 3rd

Show the underlying numbers

Marshall offensive per play: 0.1138th percentile · #85 nationally
South Alabama PPA allowed per play: 0.273rd percentile · #134 nationally
Marshall success rate: 44%53rd percentile · #64 nationally
South Alabama success rate allowed: 51%1st percentile · #137 nationally
Marshall points per game: 22.020th percentile · #110 nationally
South Alabama points allowed per game: 34.57th percentile · #128 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Marshall offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 45.5%

South Alabama defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.38
Rush success allowed: 50.9%

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense: 74th
Marshall defense: 2nd

Show the underlying numbers

South Alabama offensive PPA per play: 0.2374th percentile · #34 nationally
Marshall PPA allowed per play: 0.312nd percentile · #135 nationally
South Alabama success rate: 44%50th percentile · #70 nationally
Marshall success rate allowed: 45%15th percentile · #117 nationally
South Alabama points per game: 38.885th percentile · #21 nationally
Marshall points allowed per game: 33.78th percentile · #127 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

South Alabama offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.35
Rush success: 43.8%

Marshall defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 44.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson · 66% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 42 attempts
Yards / attempt: 9.1; over 41 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 71%; over 41 attempts with a result

96 of 97 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 87 short · 9 deep · 1 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (44%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.0 over 25 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Marshall offense in 2026

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

89/139 · 64% season

Passing yards: 1,014
Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Coastal Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 2/6, 37 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 64
Rushing yards: 218
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Coastal Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 4 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD

Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 22
Receiving yards: 324
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

James Madison · Oct 3, 2026: 4 rec, 24 yds, 1 TD

Marshall player tables

Who is producing

Marshall player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Marshall — Passing production
Player
Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQB	6	89 / 139	1,014	7.3	6	5
Zion TurnerQB	4	33 / 51	374	7.3	2	2
Khalil WilkinsQB	5	6 / 13	99	7.6	0	0
Owen SweeneyWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

South Alabama player tables

Who is producing

South Alabama player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

South Alabama — Passing production
Player
Jared HollinsQB	4	56 / 92	855	9.3	7	2
Bishop DavenportQB	2	40 / 59	450	7.6	3	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Marshall's line averages 302.2 lbs against South Alabama's 282.1 lbs front — an edge of 20.1 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Marshall OLMarshall OL vs South Alabama DL	302.2 lbs	282.1 lbs
South Alabama OLSouth Alabama OL vs Marshall DL	301.6 lbs	276.4 lbs

Marshall
South Alabama

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Marshall

Points per game: 22.0#110 nationally · 20th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 33.7#127 nationally · 8th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 99% of 2025 PPA returns · 99th percentile
Upperclassmen: 50% · 139 of 139 with a class year

South Alabama

Points per game: 38.8#21 nationally · 85th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 34.5#128 nationally · 7th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 79% of 2025 PPA returns · 90th percentile
Upperclassmen: 56% · 163 of 163 with a class year

Recruiting

Marshall

2026 signing class · #123 nationally: 11th percentile · 162.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #120 nationally: 13th percentile · −0.96 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #97 nationally: 30th percentile · 594.7

South Alabama

2026 signing class · #77 nationally: 45th percentile · 187.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #96 nationally: 31st percentile · −0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #107 nationally: 23rd percentile · 573.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Marshall: solid line, circles · South Alabama: dashed line, squares

Marshall

Offense · 2026: 24.4 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 37.5 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.1 pts · 11th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 99% returning · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

South Alabama

Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 39.9 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 187.2 pts · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 79% returning · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Marshall's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 79 recorded plays
vs Coastal Carolina
L 21–27
47%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 80 recorded plays
at James Madison
L 17–45
49%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 77 recorded plays
vs Gardner-Webb
vs FCS
W 36–35
42%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Marshall

Head coach: Tony Gibson
career −4.5 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Rod Smith
career +30.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad Lambert
career +28.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

South Alabama

Head coach: Major Applewhite
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Gl1204, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Jason Washington
Co-defensive coordinator · career +26.7 SP+ defense; Todd Orlando
career +26.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

South Alabama leads 1–0 since 2000

2023 · South Alabama 28, Marshall 0
Hancock Whitney Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Marshall: 6 games
South Alabama: 6 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in success rate

South Alabama's offense leads its matchup in scoring

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

South Alabama defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When South Alabama has the ball

South Alabama offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Marshall defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson

Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw

Marshall player production

South Alabama player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Marshall

South Alabama

Recruiting

Marshall

South Alabama

Season percentile profiles

Marshall

South Alabama

Marshall's recent games

vs Coastal Carolina

at James Madison

vs Gardner-Webb

The coaching staff

Marshall

South Alabama

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Marshall's offense leads its matchup in