2026 Kansas State vs 2026 Tulane
Hypothetical
79% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Kansas State Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Offense · SP+ 2026: 18.8, 17th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas State Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.7, 67th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7, 42nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 207.8 pts, 64th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tulane Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 195.1 pts, 54th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Kansas State Experience · returning production 2026: 71% returning, 85th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Tulane Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 27th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Kansas State | 2026 Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2782nd percentile | 0.0727th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0842nd percentile | 0.1718th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.674th percentile5 games | 18.410th percentile5 games |
| per game | 19.272nd percentile5 games | 22.654th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 68th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 50th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 26th percentile
Campus distance
740 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Kansas State OL vs 2026 Tulane DL | 305.2 lbs | 275.4 lbs |
| 2026 Tulane OL vs 2026 Kansas State DL | 301.6 lbs | 279.0 lbs |
2026 Kansas State line yards 3.33 · 2026 Tulane stuff rate 14.2%
2026 Tulane line yards 2.63 · 2026 Kansas State stuff rate 21.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Kansas State leads 2–1 since 2000
Kansas State has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Kansas State 31–20 Tulane | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2024 | Kansas State 34–27 Tulane | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2022 | Kansas State 10–17 Tulane | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Collin Klein (First season as Kansas State's head coach)
OC
- Sean Gleeson
career average +24.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 65th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.2 plays a game, 77th percentile)
DC
- Jordan Peterson
career average +24.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3-high safety / odd stack (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Will Hall (First season as Tulane's head coach)
OC
- Russ Callaway
career average +28.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 44th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)
DC
- Nate Fuqua (co-DC)
- Tayler Polk
career average +31.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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