Saturday, October 17

Kansas State

3–2

Kansas

2–3

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTBill Snyder Family StadiumManhattan, KS

Weather

Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Manhattan · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear51°FS 3 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

54%

Kansas State win probability

Kansas 46%

Kansas State by 1.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Kansas's case

Kansas's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Kansas's offense is in the 80th percentile for per play this season. Kansas State's defense is in the 42nd percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Kansas State's answer

Kansas State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Kansas's offense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Kansas a 46% chance to win and predicts Kansas State by 1.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State offense: 82nd
Kansas defense: 77th

Show the underlying numbers

Kansas State offensive PPA per play: 0.2782nd percentile · #25 nationally
Kansas PPA allowed per play: −0.0377th percentile · #30 nationally
Kansas State: 51%92nd percentile · #12 nationally
Kansas success rate allowed: 34%86th percentile · #20 nationally
Kansas State points per game: 35.674th percentile · #36 nationally
Kansas per game: 21.861st percentile · #55 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Kansas State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.21
Rush success: 53.4%

Kansas defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.27
Rush success allowed: 36.1%

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas offense: 80th
Kansas State defense: 42nd

Show the underlying numbers

Kansas offensive PPA per play: 0.2580th percentile · #28 nationally
Kansas State PPA allowed per play: 0.0842nd percentile · #75 nationally
Kansas success rate: 48%80th percentile · #28 nationally
Kansas State success rate allowed: 35%82nd percentile · #26 nationally
Kansas points per game: 33.664th percentile · #50 nationally
Kansas State points allowed per game: 19.272nd percentile · #39 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Kansas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.37
Rush success: 48.7%

Kansas State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.42
Rush success allowed: 42.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Avery Johnson · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 67 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.3; over 67 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 64%; over 67 attempts with a result

160 of 163 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 142 short · 18 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Kansas State offense in 2026

Avery Johnson

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

104/163 · 64% season

Passing yards: 1,092
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Houston · Oct 10, 2026: 16/30, 182 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Rodney Fields Jr.

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 63
Rushing yards: 320
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Houston · Oct 10, 2026: 14 carries, 46 yds, 0 TD

Jaron Tibbs

WR · 5 games

Receptions: 20
Receiving yards: 201
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Houston · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 33 yds, 1 TD

Kansas State player tables

Who is producing

Kansas State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Kansas State — Passing production
Player
Avery JohnsonQB	5	104 / 163	1,092	6.7	9	3
Blake BarnettQB	1	4 / 5	41	8.2	0	0
Jacob KnuthQB	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Kansas player tables

Who is producing

Kansas player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Kansas — Passing production
Player
Isaiah MarshallQB	5	76 / 141	1,143	8.1	8	4
Cole BallardQB	2	5 / 7	96	13.7	0	0
Chase JenkinsQB	1	3 / 3	65	21.7	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Kansas State's line averages 305.2 lbs against Kansas's 282.6 lbs front — an edge of 22.6 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Kansas State OLKansas State OL vs Kansas DL	305.2 lbs	282.6 lbs
Kansas OLKansas OL vs Kansas State DL	310.3 lbs	279.0 lbs

Kansas State
Kansas

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Kansas State

Points per game: 35.6#36 nationally · 74th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 71% of 2025 PPA returns · 85th percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Kansas

Points per game: 33.6#50 nationally · 64th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 21.8#55 nationally · 61st percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 18% of 2025 PPA returns · 25th percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Recruiting

Kansas State

2026 signing class · #50 nationally: 64th percentile · 207.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #49 nationally: 65th percentile · 0.32 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #47 nationally: 66th percentile · 718.7

Kansas

2026 signing class · #61 nationally: 56th percentile · 197.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #66 nationally: 53rd percentile · 0.03 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #62 nationally: 55th percentile · 684.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Kansas State: solid line, circles · Kansas: dashed line, squares

Kansas State

Offense · 2026: 33.5 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.7 · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 207.8 pts · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 71% returning · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Kansas

Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.4 · 65th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 197.0 pts · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 18% returning · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Kansas State's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 41 recorded plays
vs Houston
L 16–35
44%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 81 recorded plays
at Cincinnati
L 26–31
47%
Success rate
0.21
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 67 recorded plays
vs Tulane
W 31–20
48%
Success rate
0.36
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Kansas State

Head coach: Collin Klein
First season as Kansas State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Kansas State Wildcats: K-StateOnline, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Sean Gleeson
career +24.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jordan Peterson
career +24.7 SP+ defense

Kansas

Head coach: Lance Leipold
career −3.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki
career +31.0 SP+ offense; Jim Zebrowski
career +31.0 SP+ offense; Matt Lubick
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: D. K. McDonald
career +27.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Kansas State leads 22–4 since 2000

2025 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 17
Memorial Stadium
2024 · Kansas State 29, Kansas 27
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2023 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 27
Memorial Stadium
2022 · Kansas State 47, Kansas 27
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2021 · Kansas State 35, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2020 · Kansas State 55, Kansas 14
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2019 · Kansas State 38, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2018 · Kansas State 21, Kansas 17
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2017 · Kansas State 30, Kansas 20
Memorial Stadium
2016 · Kansas State 34, Kansas 19
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2015 · Kansas State 45, Kansas 14
Memorial Stadium
2014 · Kansas State 51, Kansas 13
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2013 · Kansas State 31, Kansas 10
Memorial Stadium
2012 · Kansas State 56, Kansas 16
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2011 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 21
Memorial Stadium
2010 · Kansas State 59, Kansas 7
Memorial Stadium
2009 · Kansas State 17, Kansas 10
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2008 · Kansas 52, Kansas State 21
Memorial Stadium
2007 · Kansas 30, Kansas State 24
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2006 · Kansas 39, Kansas State 20
Memorial Stadium
2005 · Kansas State 12, Kansas 3
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2004 · Kansas 31, Kansas State 28
Memorial Stadium
2003 · Kansas State 42, Kansas 6
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2002 · Kansas State 64, Kansas 0
Memorial Stadium
2001 · Kansas State 40, Kansas 6
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
2000 · Kansas State 52, Kansas 13

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Kansas State: 5 games
Kansas: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Kansas's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Kansas State has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Kansas defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Kansas State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Avery Johnson

Rodney Fields Jr.

Jaron Tibbs

Kansas State player production

Kansas player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Kansas State

Kansas

Recruiting

Kansas State

Kansas

Season percentile profiles

Kansas State

Kansas

Kansas State's recent games

vs Houston

at Cincinnati

vs Tulane

The coaching staff

Kansas State

Kansas

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources