2026 James Madison vs 2026 Liberty
Hypothetical
53% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 James Madison Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.1, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Liberty Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.0, 60th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 James Madison Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.8, 72nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Liberty Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.6, 73rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 James Madison Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Liberty Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 James Madison Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 185.6 pts, 42nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Liberty Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 172.6 pts, 21st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 James Madison Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 10th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Liberty Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning, 47th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 James Madison | 2026 Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2985th percentile | 0.1753rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0582nd percentile | −0.0480th percentile |
| Points per game | 41.893rd percentile6 games | 31.256th percentile6 games |
| per game | 15.089th percentile6 games | 15.388th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 21st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 72nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 24th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 65th percentile
Campus distance
75 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 James Madison OL vs 2026 Liberty DL | 309.2 lbs | 270.8 lbs |
| 2026 Liberty OL vs 2026 James Madison DL | 299.5 lbs | 274.4 lbs |
2026 James Madison line yards 3.30 · 2026 Liberty stuff rate 22.4%
2026 Liberty line yards 3.40 · 2026 James Madison stuff rate 17.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · James Madison leads 2–0 since 2000
James Madison has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | James Madison 20–13 Liberty | Bridgeforth Stadium · James Madison home |
| 2025 | James Madison 31–13 Liberty | Williams Stadium (VA) · Liberty home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Billy Napier
OC
- Cam Aiken
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 32nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 64th percentile)
DC
- Robert Bala
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jamey Chadwell
OC
- Newland Isaac
- Willy Korn (co-OC)
career average +31.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: No-huddle spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 34% of its run–pass plays, 5th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)
DC
- Shawn Quinn
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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