Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
6–0
vs
Georgia State
4–1
12:00 PM ETBridgeforth StadiumHarrisonburg, VA
Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:22 PM ET · National Weather Service
Harrisonburg · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
79%
James Madison win probability
Georgia State 21%
James Madison by 11.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · James Madison's case
James Madison's offense is in the 93rd percentile for points per game this season. Georgia State's defense is in the 74th percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Georgia State's answer
None of its defense's numbers stands out against James Madison's offense.
03 · What could swing it
James Madison's leading passer has thrown 67% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Camden Coleman · 67% of charted pass attempts
94 of 95 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 87 short · 7 deep · 1 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (51%). Left gives the most yards per attempt: 8.2 over 28 attempts with a result.
The James Madison offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
97/155 · 63% season
Last game
Georgia Southern · Oct 10, 2026: 16/27, 171 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Georgia Southern · Oct 10, 2026: 21 carries, 151 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Marshall · Oct 3, 2026: 5 rec, 104 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden ColemanQB | 6 | 97 / 155 | 1,151 | 7.4 | 11 | 1 |
| JC EvansQB | 2 | 9 / 11 | 119 | 10.8 | 3 | 0 |
| Arrington MaidenQB | 1 | 7 / 8 | 111 | 13.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Tanner VibabulQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameran BrownQB | 5 | 89 / 131 | 1,157 | 8.8 | 12 | 4 |
| Ayden PereiraQB | 3 | 6 / 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 | 1 |
| Gavin NuckollsQB | 1 | 3 / 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 |
| TJ StanleyQB | 1 | 2 / 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ RilesWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 50 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
James Madison's line averages 309.2 lbs against Georgia State's 282.5 lbs front — an edge of 26.7 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| James Madison OLJames Madison OL vs Georgia State DL | 309.2 lbs | 282.5 lbs |
| Georgia State OLGeorgia State OL vs James Madison DL | 310.3 lbs | 274.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
James Madison: solid line, circles · Georgia State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 78 recorded plays
W 27–24
41%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 66 recorded plays
W 45–17
55%
Success rate
0.47
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 79 recorded plays
W 46–20
42%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Cam Aiken
no career rating on file
Robert Bala
career +22.6 SP+ defense
Dell McGee
career −21.2 SP+ overall
Cam Clark
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file
John Haneline
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file
2025 · James Madison 14, Georgia State 7
Center Parc Stadium
2024 · James Madison 38, Georgia State 7
Bridgeforth Stadium
2023 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 14
Center Parc Stadium
2022 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 40
Bridgeforth Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date