2026 Jacksonville State vs 2026 Middle Tennessee
Hypothetical
61% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Jacksonville State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.5, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.4, 35th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 183.4 pts, 38th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 164.9 pts, 14th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Experience · returning production 2026: 50% returning, 59th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Middle Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 33% returning, 38th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Jacksonville State | 2026 Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | 0.1035th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0555th percentile | 0.229th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.341st percentile6 games | 20.816th percentile5 games |
| per game | 22.555th percentile6 games | 28.020th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 15th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 38th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 16th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 6th percentile
Campus distance
145 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Jacksonville State OL vs 2026 Middle Tennessee DL | 297.0 lbs | 287.6 lbs |
| 2026 Middle Tennessee OL vs 2026 Jacksonville State DL | 305.2 lbs | 270.3 lbs |
2026 Jacksonville State line yards 3.01 · 2026 Middle Tennessee stuff rate 13.9%
2026 Middle Tennessee line yards 3.25 · 2026 Jacksonville State stuff rate 16.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Jacksonville State leads 4–0 since 2000
Jacksonville State has won 4 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Jacksonville State 23–13 Middle Tennessee | AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State home |
| 2025 | Jacksonville State 24–21 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
| 2024 | Jacksonville State 42–20 Middle Tennessee | AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State home |
| 2023 | Jacksonville State 45–30 Middle Tennessee | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Middle Tennessee home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Charles Kelly
OC
- Taylor Housewright
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.8 plays a game, 23rd percentile)
DC
- Brian Williams
career average +25.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Derek Mason
OC
- Anthony Scelfo
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)
DC
- Brian Stewart
career average +30.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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