Tuesday, October 13
Compare these teams
4–2
vs
Florida International
3–2
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTAmFirst StadiumJacksonville, AL
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 12:06 PM CT · National Weather Service
Jacksonville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
51%
Jacksonville State win probability
Florida International 49%
Jacksonville State by 0.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Jacksonville State's case
Jacksonville State's defense is in the 55th percentile for allowed per play this season. Florida International's offense is in the 9th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Florida International's answer
Florida International's defense is in the 96th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Jacksonville State's offense is in the 41st percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Jacksonville State a 51% chance to win and predicts Jacksonville State by 0.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Caden Creel · 97% of charted pass attempts
122 of 126 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 105 short · 17 deep · 4 not stated
The Jacksonville State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
113/170 · 66% season
Last game
Kennesaw State · Oct 7, 2026: 26/44, 311 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Kennesaw State · Oct 7, 2026: 10 carries, 30 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Last game
Kennesaw State · Oct 7, 2026: 3 rec, 8 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelQB | 6 | 113 / 170 | 1,423 | 8.4 | 10 | 5 |
| Jack MoranQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter LewisP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamill WilliamsWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. KohlQB | 5 | 92 / 161 | 1,180 | 7.3 | 5 | 7 |
| Zach MarkerQB | 2 | 7 / 11 | 97 | 8.8 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo StoneWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Jacksonville State's line averages 297.0 lbs against Florida International's 266.0 lbs front — an edge of 31.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State OLJacksonville State OL vs Florida International DL | 297.0 lbs | 266.0 lbs |
| Florida International OLFlorida International OL vs Jacksonville State DL | 303.4 lbs | 270.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Jacksonville State: solid line, circles · Florida International: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 7 · 75 recorded plays
W 27–26
44%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 68 recorded plays
W 23–13
56%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 51 recorded plays
W 31–27
41%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
Taylor Housewright
no career rating on file
Brian Williams
career +25.3 SP+ defense
Willie Simmons
career −10.5 SP+ overall
2025 · Florida International 27, Jacksonville State 21
Pitbull Stadium
2024 · Jacksonville State 34, Florida International 31
AmFirst Stadium
2023 · Jacksonville State 41, Florida International 16
FIU Stadium
2020 · Jacksonville State 19, Florida International 10
FIU Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date