2026 Illinois vs 2026 UAB

Hypothetical

Illinois by 11.8

79% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

IllinoisPreseason baseline +8.4In-season results −2.2

UABPreseason baseline −6.2In-season results −1.9

UAB home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Illinois	2026 UAB
Offensive / play	0.2374th percentile	0.0215th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.254th percentile	0.0648th percentile
Points per game	31.860th percentile6 games	22.221st percentile6 games
per game	27.823rd percentile6 games	25.832nd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Illinois2026 UAB

Momentum

Illinois↘ falling (−15 pctl over 3 seasons)

UAB→ steady (−3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Illinois

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 72nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

2026 UAB

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 17th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 17th percentile

Matching its talent (−1)

Campus distance

460 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Illinois OL vs 2026 UAB DL	316.2 lbs	282.9 lbs
2026 UAB OL vs 2026 Illinois DL	315.0 lbs	284.4 lbs

2026 Illinois line yards 3.39 · 2026 UAB stuff rate 11.8%

2026 UAB line yards 3.13 · 2026 Illinois stuff rate 19.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Illinois leads 1–0 since 2000

Illinois has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Illinois 42–23 UAB	Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · Illinois home

Coaching & program context

2026 Illinois

Bret Bielema

Barry Lunney Jr.

career average +26.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 86th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.2 plays a game, 26th percentile)

Bobby Hauck
Bobby Hauck (1st season; first 4 games)
Bobby Hauck (games 1–4)

no career track record on file

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 UAB

Alex Mortensen

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 34% of its run–pass plays, 6th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 55th percentile)

Todd Grantham

career average +17.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.