Thursday, October 15

UAB

3–3

East Carolina

3–2

7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTProtective StadiumBirmingham, AL

Weather

Clear82°FSW 0 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Birmingham · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear82°FSW 0 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

34%

UAB win probability

East Carolina 66%

East Carolina by 5.9

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · UAB's case

UAB's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UAB's defense is in the 48th percentile for allowed per play this season. East Carolina's offense is in the 20th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

02 · East Carolina's answer

East Carolina's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

East Carolina's defense is in the 90th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) allowed per play this season. UAB's offense is in the 15th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives UAB a 34% chance to win and predicts East Carolina by 5.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UAB has the ball

UAB offense: 15th
East Carolina defense: 90th

Show the underlying numbers

UAB offensive PPA per play: 0.0215th percentile · #115 nationally
East Carolina PPA allowed per play: −0.0790th percentile · #14 nationally
UAB: 43%42nd percentile · #81 nationally
East Carolina success rate allowed: 34%92nd percentile · #12 nationally
UAB points per game: 22.221st percentile · #108 nationally
East Carolina per game: 22.654th percentile · #63 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

UAB offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 46.0%

East Carolina defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.24
Rush success allowed: 37.6%

When East Carolina has the ball

East Carolina offense: 20th
UAB defense: 48th

Show the underlying numbers

East Carolina offensive PPA per play: 0.0420th percentile · #109 nationally
UAB PPA allowed per play: 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
East Carolina success rate: 38%12th percentile · #122 nationally
UAB success rate allowed: 45%20th percentile · #111 nationally
East Carolina points per game: 24.831st percentile · #95 nationally
UAB points allowed per game: 25.832nd percentile · #93 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

East Carolina offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 38.4%

UAB defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.04
Rush success allowed: 49.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Ryder Burton · 81% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 34 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.9; over 34 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 56%; over 34 attempts with a result

87 of 91 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 77 short · 10 deep · 4 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UAB offense in 2026

Ryder Burton

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

72/130 · 55% season

Passing yards: 922
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Memphis · Oct 10, 2026: 10/20, 131 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Roderick Robinson II

RB · 6 games

Carries: 93
Rushing yards: 403
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

Memphis · Oct 10, 2026: 19 carries, 65 yds, 0 TD

Tiaquelin Mims

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 17
Receiving yards: 302
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Memphis · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 79 yds, 0 TD

UAB player tables

Who is producing

UAB player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

UAB — Passing production
Player
Ryder BurtonQB	6	72 / 130	922	7.1	4	5
Nate RogersQB	3	1 / 4	13	3.3	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

East Carolina player tables

Who is producing

East Carolina player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

East Carolina — Passing production
Player
Emory WilliamsQB	4	50 / 77	529	6.9	5	1
Mitch GriffisQB	5	38 / 70	424	6.1	3	2
Jason DickersonWR	1	1 / 1	25	25.0	1	0
Kyler PearsonWR	1	1 / 1	−2	−2.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UAB's line averages 315.0 lbs against East Carolina's 263.3 lbs front — an edge of 51.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UAB OLUAB OL vs East Carolina DL	315.0 lbs	263.3 lbs
East Carolina OLEast Carolina OL vs UAB DL	294.4 lbs	282.9 lbs

UAB
East Carolina

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UAB

Points per game: 22.2#108 nationally · 21st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 25.8#93 nationally · 32nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 80% of 2025 PPA returns · 91st percentile
Upperclassmen: 53% · 150 of 150 with a class year

East Carolina

Points per game: 24.8#95 nationally · 31st percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 22.6#63 nationally · 54th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 14% of 2025 PPA returns · 15th percentile
Upperclassmen: 66% · 122 of 122 with a class year

Recruiting

UAB

2026 signing class · #133 nationally: 4th percentile · 135.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #126 nationally: 9th percentile · −1.18 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #92 nationally: 34th percentile · 606.2

East Carolina

2026 signing class · #94 nationally: 32nd percentile · 179.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #76 nationally: 45th percentile · −0.27 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #83 nationally: 40th percentile · 623.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UAB: solid line, circles · East Carolina: dashed line, squares

UAB

Offense · 2026: 18.8 · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.6 · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 135.3 pts · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 80% returning · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

East Carolina

Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.5 · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.8 · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.0 pts · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

UAB's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 65 recorded plays
at Memphis
L 13–38
37%
Success rate
−0.28
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 70 recorded plays
vs Samford
vs FCS
W 33–14
50%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play
Sep 25 · 57 recorded plays
vs Navy
W 24–20
39%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UAB

Head coach: Alex Mortensen
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Todd Grantham
career +17.8 SP+ defense
Photo: Thomson200, CC0

East Carolina

Head coach: Blake Harrell
career +3.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Rick Munroe, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jordan Davis
career +36.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jordon Hankins
career +28.3 SP+ defense; Roy Tesh
Co-defensive coordinator · career +28.3 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

East Carolina leads 8–3 since 2000

2013 · East Carolina 63, UAB 14
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2012 · East Carolina 42, UAB 35
Legion Field
2011 · East Carolina 28, UAB 23
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2010 · East Carolina 54, UAB 42
Legion Field
2009 · East Carolina 37, UAB 21
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2008 · East Carolina 17, UAB 13
Legion Field
2007 · East Carolina 41, UAB 6
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2006 · UAB 17, East Carolina 12
Legion Field
2005 · East Carolina 31, UAB 23
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
2002 · UAB 36, East Carolina 29
Legion Field
2000 · UAB 16, East Carolina 13

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

UAB: 6 games
East Carolina: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

UAB's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

East Carolina's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When UAB has the ball

UAB offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

East Carolina defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When East Carolina has the ball

East Carolina offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

UAB defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Ryder Burton

Roderick Robinson II

Tiaquelin Mims

UAB player production

East Carolina player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UAB

East Carolina

Recruiting

UAB

East Carolina

Season percentile profiles

UAB

East Carolina

UAB's recent games

at Memphis

vs Samford

vs Navy

The coaching staff

UAB

East Carolina

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources