2026 Illinois vs 2026 Oregon

Hypothetical

Oregon by 12.0

80% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

Why this number

IllinoisPreseason baseline +8.4In-season results −2.2

OregonPreseason baseline +26.5In-season results −5.9

Illinois home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Illinois	2026 Oregon
Offensive / play	0.2374th percentile	0.1753rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.254th percentile	−0.0377th percentile
Points per game	31.860th percentile6 games	41.091st percentile5 games
per game	27.823rd percentile6 games	22.058th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Illinois2026 Oregon

Momentum

Illinois↘ falling (−15 pctl over 3 seasons)

Oregon→ steady (−7 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Illinois

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 72nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

2026 Oregon

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 97th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 92nd percentile

Matching its talent (−5)

Campus distance

1795 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Illinois OL vs 2026 Oregon DL	316.2 lbs	308.9 lbs
2026 Oregon OL vs 2026 Illinois DL	313.2 lbs	284.4 lbs

2026 Illinois line yards 3.39 · 2026 Oregon stuff rate 19.5%

2026 Oregon line yards 3.06 · 2026 Illinois stuff rate 19.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Oregon leads 1–0 since 2000

Oregon has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2024	Illinois 9–38 Oregon	Autzen Stadium · Oregon home

Coaching & program context

2026 Illinois

Bret Bielema

Barry Lunney Jr.

career average +26.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 86th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.2 plays a game, 26th percentile)

Bobby Hauck
Bobby Hauck (1st season; first 4 games)
Bobby Hauck (games 1–4)

no career track record on file

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Oregon

Dan Lanning

Drew Mehringer

career average +28.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 87th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)

Chris Hampton

career average +19.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.