Saturday, October 24

Illinois

3–3

Oregon

3–2

Time TBAMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)Champaign, IL

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Illinois's case

Illinois's offense leads its matchup in

Illinois's offense is in the 90th percentile for success rate this season. Oregon's defense is in the 74th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Oregon's answer

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Oregon's offense is in the 91st percentile for points per game this season. Illinois's defense is in the 23rd percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois offense: 74th
Oregon defense: 77th

Show the underlying numbers

Illinois offensive per play: 0.2374th percentile · #34 nationally
Oregon PPA allowed per play: −0.0377th percentile · #30 nationally
Illinois success rate: 50%90th percentile · #15 nationally
Oregon success rate allowed: 37%74th percentile · #37 nationally
Illinois points per game: 31.860th percentile · #56 nationally
Oregon points allowed per game: 22.058th percentile · #57 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Illinois offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.27
Rush success: 46.4%

Oregon defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 38.9%

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense: 53rd
Illinois defense: 4th

Show the underlying numbers

Oregon offensive PPA per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
Illinois PPA allowed per play: 0.254th percentile · #130 nationally
Oregon success rate: 44%57th percentile · #60 nationally
Illinois success rate allowed: 46%15th percentile · #118 nationally
Oregon points per game: 41.091st percentile · #13 nationally
Illinois points allowed per game: 27.823rd percentile · #107 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Oregon offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.39
Rush success: 42.6%

Illinois defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 44.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Katin Houser · 76% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 48%
Usage: charted in this direction: 56 attempts
Yards / attempt: 10.8; over 56 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 75%; over 56 attempts with a result

116 of 118 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 97 short · 19 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (48%). Left gives the most yards per attempt: 10.8 over 56 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Illinois offense in 2026

Katin Houser

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

122/184 · 66% season

Passing yards: 1,440
Touchdowns: 12
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Michigan State · Oct 10, 2026: 20/29, 194 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Aidan Laughery

RB · 6 games

Carries: 62
Rushing yards: 391
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Michigan State · Oct 10, 2026: 17 carries, 70 yds, 0 TD

Collin Dixon

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 47
Receiving yards: 608
Touchdowns: 9

Last game

Michigan State · Oct 10, 2026: 7 rec, 62 yds, 1 TD

Illinois player tables

Who is producing

Illinois player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Illinois — Passing production
Player
Katin HouserQB	6	122 / 184	1,440	7.8	12	4
Michael Clayton IIQB	1	6 / 8	88	11.0	2	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Oregon player tables

Who is producing

Oregon player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Oregon — Passing production
Player
Dante MooreQB	4	69 / 99	926	9.4	9	0
Dylan RaiolaQB	3	36 / 55	456	8.3	5	2
Brock ThomasQB	2	14 / 20	174	8.7	1	0
Akili Smith Jr.QB	1	2 / 4	31	7.8	0	0
Evan StewartWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Illinois's line averages 316.2 lbs against Oregon's 308.9 lbs front — an edge of 7.3 lbs a man.

Oregon's front average is based on 8 of 10 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Illinois OLIllinois OL vs Oregon DL	316.2 lbs	308.9 lbs
Oregon OLOregon OL vs Illinois DL	313.2 lbs	284.4 lbs

Illinois
Oregon

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Illinois

Points per game: 31.8#56 nationally · 60th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 27.8#107 nationally · 23rd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 21% of 2025 PPA returns · 28th percentile
Upperclassmen: 41% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Oregon

Points per game: 41.0#13 nationally · 91st percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 22.0#57 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 75% of 2025 PPA returns · 88th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Recruiting

Illinois

2026 signing class · #24 nationally: 83rd percentile · 230.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #35 nationally: 75th percentile · 0.51 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #51 nationally: 64th percentile · 704.0

Oregon

2026 signing class · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 303.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 2.12 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 984.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Illinois: solid line, circles · Oregon: dashed line, squares

Illinois

Offense · 2026: 33.1 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.7 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.2 pts · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Oregon

Offense · SP+ 2026: 38.2 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.4 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.2 pts · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 75% returning · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Illinois's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 73 recorded plays
at Michigan State
W 38–37
52%
Success rate
0.20
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 66 recorded plays
vs Purdue
L 17–24
42%
Success rate
0.09
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 66 recorded plays
at Ohio State
L 19–42
45%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Illinois

Head coach: Bret Bielema
career +12.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Barry Lunney Jr.
career +26.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Bobby Hauck
no career rating on file; Bobby Hauck (1st season; first 4 games)
no career rating on file
Photo: Lakia Clarke-Brown; cropped by User:Blueag9., Public domain; Bobby Hauck (games 1–4)
no career rating on file
Photo: Lakia Clarke-Brown; cropped by User:Blueag9., Public domain

Oregon

Head coach: Dan Lanning
career +24.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Drew Mehringer
career +28.0 SP+ offense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Defensive coordinator: Chris Hampton
career +19.6 SP+ defense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0

Head-to-head

Oregon leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · Oregon 38, Illinois 9
Autzen Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Illinois: 6 games
Oregon: 5 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Illinois's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Oregon's offense leads its matchup in scoring

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Oregon defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Illinois defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Katin Houser

Aidan Laughery

Collin Dixon

Illinois player production

Oregon player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Illinois

Oregon

Recruiting

Illinois

Oregon

Season percentile profiles

Illinois

Oregon

Illinois's recent games

at Michigan State

vs Purdue

at Ohio State

The coaching staff

Illinois

Oregon

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Illinois's offense leads its matchup in