2026 Georgia State vs 2026 James Madison

Hypothetical

James Madison by 6.4

67% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Georgia StateIn-season results +7.6Preseason baseline −7.1

James MadisonPreseason baseline +6.0In-season results +3.4

Georgia State home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Georgia State	2026 James Madison
Offensive / play	0.2477th percentile	0.2985th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0582nd percentile	−0.0582nd percentile
Points per game	39.488th percentile5 games	41.893rd percentile6 games
per game	19.074th percentile5 games	15.089th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Georgia State2026 James Madison

Momentum

Georgia State↗ rising (+27 pctl over 3 seasons)

James Madison→ steady (+2 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Georgia State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 29th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 34th percentile

Matching its talent (+6)

2026 James Madison

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 21st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 72nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+51)

Campus distance

445 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Georgia State OL vs 2026 James Madison DL	310.3 lbs	274.4 lbs
2026 James Madison OL vs 2026 Georgia State DL	309.2 lbs	282.5 lbs

2026 Georgia State line yards 3.27 · 2026 James Madison stuff rate 17.7%

2026 James Madison line yards 3.30 · 2026 Georgia State stuff rate 24.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · James Madison leads 4–0 since 2000

James Madison has won 4 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Georgia State 7–14 James Madison	Center Parc Stadium · Georgia State home
2024	Georgia State 7–38 James Madison	Bridgeforth Stadium · James Madison home
2023	Georgia State 14–42 James Madison	Center Parc Stadium · Georgia State home
2022	Georgia State 40–42 James Madison	Bridgeforth Stadium · James Madison home

Coaching & program context

2026 Georgia State

Dell McGee

Hue Jackson

career average +18.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro-style (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 34th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.4 plays a game, 78th percentile)

Cam Clark (co-DC)
John Haneline (co-DC)

no career track record on file

Scheme: 1st (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 James Madison

Billy Napier

Cam Aiken

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 32nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 64th percentile)

Robert Bala

career average +22.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.