Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1
at
James Madison
6–0
12:00 PM ETBridgeforth StadiumHarrisonburg, VA
Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:22 PM ET · National Weather Service
Harrisonburg · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy50°FN 15 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 3%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
21%
Georgia State win probability
James Madison 79%
James Madison by 11.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · James Madison's case
James Madison's offense is in the 93rd percentile for points per game this season. Georgia State's defense is in the 74th percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Georgia State's answer
None of its defense's numbers stands out against James Madison's offense.
03 · What could swing it
The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 26 mph at kickoff.
See the weatherOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Cameran Brown · 88% of charted pass attempts
107 of 111 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 95 short · 12 deep · 4 not stated
The Georgia State offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
89/131 · 68% season
Last game
Old Dominion · Oct 3, 2026: 14/20, 284 yds, 6 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Old Dominion · Oct 3, 2026: 10 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Old Dominion · Oct 3, 2026: 2 rec, 42 yds, 2 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameran BrownQB | 5 | 89 / 131 | 1,157 | 8.8 | 12 | 4 |
| Ayden PereiraQB | 3 | 6 / 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 | 1 |
| Gavin NuckollsQB | 1 | 3 / 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 |
| TJ StanleyQB | 1 | 2 / 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ RilesWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 50 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden ColemanQB | 6 | 97 / 155 | 1,151 | 7.4 | 11 | 1 |
| JC EvansQB | 2 | 9 / 11 | 119 | 10.8 | 3 | 0 |
| Arrington MaidenQB | 1 | 7 / 8 | 111 | 13.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Tanner VibabulQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Georgia State's line averages 310.3 lbs against James Madison's 274.4 lbs front — an edge of 35.9 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia State OLGeorgia State OL vs James Madison DL | 310.3 lbs | 274.4 lbs |
| James Madison OLJames Madison OL vs Georgia State DL | 309.2 lbs | 282.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Georgia State: solid line, circles · James Madison: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 35 recorded plays
W 42–10
57%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 58 recorded plays
W 35–14
43%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 87 recorded plays
L 30–44
40%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Dell McGee
career −21.2 SP+ overall
Cam Clark
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file
John Haneline
Co-defensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Cam Aiken
no career rating on file
Robert Bala
career +22.6 SP+ defense
2025 · James Madison 14, Georgia State 7
Center Parc Stadium
2024 · James Madison 38, Georgia State 7
Bridgeforth Stadium
2023 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 14
Center Parc Stadium
2022 · James Madison 42, Georgia State 40
Bridgeforth Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date