2026 Georgia Southern vs 2026 Old Dominion

Published

Georgia Southern by 0.1

50% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

Georgia SouthernPreseason baseline −5.9In-season results +2.9

Old DominionIn-season results −7.8Preseason baseline +2.2

Old Dominion home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Georgia Southern	2026 Old Dominion
Offensive / play	0.1446th percentile	−0.151st percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	−0.0582nd percentile
Points per game	24.731st percentile6 games	18.29th percentile6 games
per game	24.345th percentile6 games	27.526th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Georgia Southern2026 Old Dominion

Momentum

Georgia Southern→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Old Dominion→ steady (−7 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Georgia Southern

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 33rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 35th percentile

Matching its talent (+2)

2026 Old Dominion

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 18th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 22nd percentile

Matching its talent (+4)

Campus distance

440 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Georgia Southern OL vs 2026 Old Dominion DL	293.2 lbs	267.7 lbs
2026 Old Dominion OL vs 2026 Georgia Southern DL	303.1 lbs	294.0 lbs

2026 Georgia Southern line yards 2.98 · 2026 Old Dominion stuff rate 21.7%

2026 Old Dominion line yards 1.87 · 2026 Georgia Southern stuff rate 20.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Old Dominion leads 3–1 since 2000

Old Dominion has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Georgia Southern 10–45 Old Dominion	Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Georgia Southern home
2024	Georgia Southern 19–47 Old Dominion	S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion home
2023	Georgia Southern 17–20 Old Dominion	Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Georgia Southern home
2022	Georgia Southern 28–23 Old Dominion	S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion home

Coaching & program context

2026 Georgia Southern

Clay Helton

Ryan Aplin

career average +24.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 59% of its run–pass plays, 98th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

Mike Mutz

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

2026 Old Dominion

Ricky Rahne

Kody Cook

no career track record on file

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 11th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.5 plays a game, 28th percentile)

Blake Seiler

career average +28.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–2–6 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.