Thursday, October 15
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Old Dominion
2–4
7:30 PM ETS.B. Ballard StadiumNorfolk, VA
Mostly cloudy69°FE 9 mphGusts 13 mphPrecip 5%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM ET · Updated 12:47 PM ET · National Weather Service
Norfolk · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Mostly cloudy69°FE 9 mphGusts 13 mphPrecip 5%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
50%
Georgia Southern win probability
Old Dominion 50%
Georgia Southern by 0.1
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Georgia Southern's case
Georgia Southern's defense is in the 63rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Old Dominion's offense is in the 0th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Old Dominion's answer
Old Dominion's defense is in the 85th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Georgia Southern's offense is in the 46th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Georgia Southern a 50% chance to win and predicts Georgia Southern by 0.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Max Johnson · 77% of charted pass attempts
157 of 158 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 139 short · 18 deep · 1 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go left (54%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 8.1 over 49 attempts with a result.
The Georgia Southern offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
148/224 · 66% season
Last game
James Madison · Oct 10, 2026: 26/38, 343 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
James Madison · Oct 10, 2026: 2 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
James Madison · Oct 10, 2026: 8 rec, 111 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max JohnsonQB | 6 | 148 / 224 | 1,572 | 7.0 | 11 | 2 |
| Turner HeltonQB | 1 | 5 / 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Weston BryanQB | 4 | 2 / 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Taeo ToddRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn HenicleQB | 5 | 48 / 88 | 564 | 6.4 | 3 | 4 |
| Ryan HuffQB | 3 | 23 / 48 | 279 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaxon PotterQB | 1 | 2 / 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Georgia Southern's line averages 293.2 lbs against Old Dominion's 267.7 lbs front — an edge of 25.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern OLGeorgia Southern OL vs Old Dominion DL | 293.2 lbs | 267.7 lbs |
| Old Dominion OLOld Dominion OL vs Georgia Southern DL | 303.1 lbs | 294.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Georgia Southern: solid line, circles · Old Dominion: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 67 recorded plays
L 24–27
48%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 59 recorded plays
W 31–24
44%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 67 recorded plays
L 28–42
48%
Success rate
0.27
PPA / play
Ryan Aplin
career +24.6 SP+ offense
Mike Mutz
no career rating on file
Ricky Rahne
career −7.8 SP+ overall
Kody Cook
no career rating on file
Blake Seiler
career +28.5 SP+ defense
2025 · Old Dominion 45, Georgia Southern 10
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
2024 · Old Dominion 47, Georgia Southern 19
S.B. Ballard Stadium
2023 · Old Dominion 20, Georgia Southern 17
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
2022 · Georgia Southern 28, Old Dominion 23
S.B. Ballard Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date