2026 Florida vs 2026 Florida Atlantic
Hypothetical
90% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Florida Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 87th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.9, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.6, 58th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.0, 31st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.0 pts, 88th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 157.5 pts, 6th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 84th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning, 81st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Florida | 2026 Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2883rd percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | 0.1815th percentile |
| Points per game | 41.792nd percentile6 games | 37.280th percentile5 games |
| per game | 29.018th percentile6 games | 26.629th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 31st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 50th percentile
Campus distance
265 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Florida OL vs 2026 Florida Atlantic DL | 311.7 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
| 2026 Florida Atlantic OL vs 2026 Florida DL | 302.8 lbs | 293.9 lbs |
2026 Florida line yards 2.93 · 2026 Florida Atlantic stuff rate 19.7%
2026 Florida Atlantic line yards 2.89 · 2026 Florida stuff rate 14.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Florida leads 5–0 since 2000
Florida has won 5 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Florida 66–21 Florida Atlantic | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2021 | Florida 35–14 Florida Atlantic | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2015 | Florida 20–14 Florida Atlantic | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2011 | Florida 41–3 Florida Atlantic | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
| 2007 | Florida 59–20 Florida Atlantic | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jon Sumrall (First season as Florida's head coach)
OC
- Buster Faulkner
career average +28.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 31st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.2 plays a game, 77th percentile)
DC
- Brad White
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Zach Kittley
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.8 plays a game, 96th percentile)
DC
- Brett Dewhurst
career average +38.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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