2026 Eastern Michigan vs 2026 Massachusetts
Hypothetical
58% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 19.5, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Massachusetts Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.0, 21st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.3, 25th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Massachusetts Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.4, 30th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Massachusetts Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.4 pts, 23rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Massachusetts Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 167.0 pts, 16th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Eastern Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 72% returning, 86th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Massachusetts Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Eastern Michigan | 2026 Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0625th percentile | 0.2064th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1328th percentile | −0.0377th percentile |
| Points per game | 22.623rd percentile7 games | 29.751st percentile6 games |
| per game | 24.743rd percentile7 games | 18.278th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 29th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 18th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 7th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 23rd percentile
Campus distance
565 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Eastern Michigan OL vs 2026 Massachusetts DL | 302.8 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
| 2026 Massachusetts OL vs 2026 Eastern Michigan DL | 314.7 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
2026 Eastern Michigan line yards 3.01 · 2026 Massachusetts stuff rate 20.8%
2026 Massachusetts line yards 3.25 · 2026 Eastern Michigan stuff rate 19.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Eastern Michigan leads 5–2 since 2000
Eastern Michigan has won 5 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Eastern Michigan 38–14 Massachusetts | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home |
| 2024 | Eastern Michigan 28–14 Massachusetts | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home |
| 2023 | Eastern Michigan 19–17 Massachusetts | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2022 | Eastern Michigan 20–13 Massachusetts | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2021 | Eastern Michigan 42–28 Massachusetts | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home |
| 2015 | Eastern Michigan 17–28 Massachusetts | Rynearson Stadium · Eastern Michigan home |
| 2014 | Eastern Michigan 14–36 Massachusetts | Gillette Stadium · Massachusetts home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Chris Creighton
OC
- Mike Piatkowski
career average +17.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 92nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.0 plays a game, 55th percentile)
DC
- Kasey Teegardin (co-DC)
- Tate Omli
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Joe Harasymiak
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 25th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.5 plays a game, 1st percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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