2026 Cincinnati vs 2026 Kansas State

Hypothetical

Kansas State by 2.6

57% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

CincinnatiPreseason baseline +5.3In-season results −1.2

Kansas StatePreseason baseline +11.3In-season results −2.0

Cincinnati home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Cincinnati	2026 Kansas State
Offensive / play	0.2985th percentile	0.2782nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1328th percentile	0.0842nd percentile
Points per game	33.865th percentile5 games	35.674th percentile5 games
per game	23.253rd percentile5 games	19.272nd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Cincinnati2026 Kansas State

Momentum

Cincinnati↗ rising (+14 pctl over 3 seasons)

Kansas State↘ falling (−11 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Cincinnati

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 55th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Matching its talent (+6)

2026 Kansas State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 68th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 77th percentile

Matching its talent (+8)

Campus distance

645 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Cincinnati OL vs 2026 Kansas State DL	309.0 lbs	279.0 lbs
2026 Kansas State OL vs 2026 Cincinnati DL	305.2 lbs	273.5 lbs

2026 Cincinnati line yards 3.59 · 2026 Kansas State stuff rate 21.4%

2026 Kansas State line yards 3.33 · 2026 Cincinnati stuff rate 19.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

Cincinnati has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Cincinnati 31–26 Kansas State	Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home
2024	Cincinnati 15–41 Kansas State	Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Cincinnati

Scott Satterfield

Nic Cardwell (co-OC)
Pete Thomas

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 22nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 34th percentile)

Cortney Braswell (co-DC)
Nate Woody

career average +25.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Kansas State

Collin Klein (First season as Kansas State's head coach)

Sean Gleeson

career average +24.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 65th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.2 plays a game, 77th percentile)

Jordan Peterson

career average +24.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3-high safety / odd stack (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.