2026 California vs 2026 Wake Forest

Hypothetical

Wake Forest by 16.5

88% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

CaliforniaIn-season results −3.0Preseason baseline +2.8

Wake ForestIn-season results +9.0Preseason baseline +4.8

Wake Forest home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 California	2026 Wake Forest
Offensive / play	0.0113th percentile	0.3190th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	0.0842nd percentile
Points per game	26.738th percentile6 games	36.880th percentile6 games
per game	25.538th percentile6 games	21.563rd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 California2026 Wake Forest

Momentum

California↘ falling (−22 pctl over 3 seasons)

Wake Forest↗ rising (+44 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 California

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 52nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 37th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−15)

2026 Wake Forest

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 62nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 74th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+12)

Campus distance

2300 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 California OL vs 2026 Wake Forest DL	317.3 lbs	273.0 lbs
2026 Wake Forest OL vs 2026 California DL	302.7 lbs	294.0 lbs

2026 California line yards 2.42 · 2026 Wake Forest stuff rate 24.2%

2026 Wake Forest line yards 3.02 · 2026 California stuff rate 16.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · California leads 1–0 since 2000

California has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2024	California 46–36 Wake Forest	Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home

Coaching & program context

2026 California

Tosh Lupoi (First season as California's head coach)

Ike Hilliard (co-OC)
Jordan Somerville

no career track record on file

Scheme: Pro-style (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 60% of its run–pass plays, 99th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.8 plays a game, 82nd percentile)

Da'Von Brown (co-DC)
Michael Hutchings

career average +28.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Wake Forest

Jake Dickert

Rob Ezell

career average +28.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 63rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)

Scottie Hazelton

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.