Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
vs
Wake Forest
5–1 · AP #21
10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTCalifornia Memorial StadiumBerkeley, CA
Clear66°FW 5 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM PT · Updated 11:27 AM PT · National Weather Service
Berkeley · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear66°FW 5 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
21%
California win probability
Wake Forest 79%
Wake Forest by 11.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Wake Forest's case
Wake Forest's offense is in the 90th percentile for per play this season. California's defense is in the 48th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · California's answer
None of its defense's numbers stands out against Wake Forest's offense.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Wake Forest a 79% chance to win and predicts Wake Forest by 11.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · 72% of charted pass attempts
133 of 137 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 118 short · 15 deep · 4 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go left (50%). Left gives the most yards per attempt: 8.5 over 66 attempts with a result.
The California offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
107/164 · 65% season
Last game
UNLV · Oct 3, 2026: 19/27, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB · 4 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Clemson · Sep 25, 2026: 13 carries, 51 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Virginia Tech · Oct 10, 2026: 7 rec, 94 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQB | 5 | 107 / 164 | 1,180 | 7.2 | 8 | 5 |
| Jackson BrousseauQB | 4 | 58 / 91 | 620 | 6.8 | 3 | 0 |
| Mason MiniTE | 1 | 1 / 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni LopezQB | 6 | 124 / 184 | 1,680 | 9.1 | 13 | 1 |
| Steele PizzellaQB | 2 | 3 / 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
California's line averages 317.3 lbs against Wake Forest's 273.0 lbs front — an edge of 44.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| California OLCalifornia OL vs Wake Forest DL | 317.3 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
| Wake Forest OLWake Forest OL vs California DL | 302.7 lbs | 294.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
California: solid line, circles · Wake Forest: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 70 recorded plays
W 25–20
43%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 83 recorded plays
L 31–39
33%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Sep 25 · 58 recorded plays
L 10–24
34%
Success rate
−0.32
PPA / play
Tosh Lupoi
First season as California's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Jordan Somerville
no career rating on file
Da'Von Brown
Co-defensive coordinator · career +28.6 SP+ defense
Michael Hutchings
career +28.6 SP+ defense
Jake Dickert
career +5.6 SP+ overall
Rob Ezell
career +28.3 SP+ offense
Scottie Hazelton
career +25.7 SP+ defense
2024 · California 46, Wake Forest 36
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date