2026 BYU vs 2026 Colorado State
Hypothetical
93% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 BYU Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.0, 86th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado State Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.0, 56th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 BYU Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.8, 94th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado State Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.7, 8th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 BYU Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 BYU Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 237.3 pts, 85th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Colorado State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 188.8 pts, 47th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 BYU Experience · returning production 2026: 79% returning, 90th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Colorado State Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 50th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 BYU | 2026 Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3088th percentile | 0.2477th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0891st percentile | 0.238th percentile |
| Points per game | 34.666th percentile5 games | 37.481st percentile5 games |
| per game | 13.493rd percentile5 games | 38.64th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 66th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 93rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 42nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 26th percentile
Campus distance
345 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 BYU OL vs 2026 Colorado State DL | 305.2 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| 2026 Colorado State OL vs 2026 BYU DL | 306.2 lbs | 271.2 lbs |
2026 BYU line yards 3.59 · 2026 Colorado State stuff rate 15.0%
2026 Colorado State line yards 2.70 · 2026 BYU stuff rate 24.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · BYU leads 9–3 since 2000
BYU has won 8 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BYU 41–23 Colorado State | Canvas Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2010 | BYU 49–10 Colorado State | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2009 | BYU 42–23 Colorado State | LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home |
| 2008 | BYU 45–42 Colorado State | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2007 | BYU 35–16 Colorado State | LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home |
| 2006 | BYU 24–3 Colorado State | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2005 | BYU 24–14 Colorado State | LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home |
| 2004 | BYU 31–21 Colorado State | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2003 | BYU 13–58 Colorado State | LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home |
| 2002 | BYU 10–37 Colorado State | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2001 | BYU 56–34 Colorado State | LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home |
| 2000 | BYU 21–45 Colorado State | Colorado State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kalani Sitake
OC
- Aaron Roderick
career average +32.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 17th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.4 plays a game, 16th percentile)
DC
- Kelly Poppinga
career average +31.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jim Mora (First season as Colorado State's head coach)
OC
- Pryce Tracy
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 95th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)
DC
- Kenny McClendon (co-DC)
- Tyson Summers
- Tyson Summers (3rd season; first 5 games)
career average +29.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
